Wendy Wedge has a good record on calling the political future and is now starting to think that John Howard might just retire sooner rather than later.

Now Wendy has been among the school which has believed fervently that the PM would stay until dragged kicking and screaming from the job or death or something similar intervened.

Wendy always thought that even death or disability might not do it. Woodrow Wilson’s wife coped quite well as de facto President after Wilson’s stroke and Janette is a more formidable character than Edith which is saying something. And in the last few months of the Reagan reign Nancy did a pretty good job as memory failure started to set in.

But there are a few straws in the wind which make us wonder a bit.

Things might be clearer when we know who the successor to Lynton Crosby is. If it’s Tony Nutt then probably the PM is staying on. After all, nobody who has been a loyal Liberal could possibly leave the party in Nutt’s hands unless he was planning to stay around and make the real decisions. If it’s Victorian State Director, Brian Loughnane, then it might just be precursor to the other bigger change.

But why has Wendy changed her mind?

It’s not that there are signs of trouble for the PM. The PM is only at his best in adversity and the problems about Iraq are hardly terminal. Interestingly, the Iraq troubles seem to have been spotted first by that vulgar thug, Mark Latham. While the political elites huffed and puffed about his graphic accusations of “arse-licking” in Washington it seems to have resonated with the punters and even seemed quite funny when George Dubya was shortly after admitted to hospital for various rectal examinations. Whether Simon Crean is desperate enough to do a Schroeder is another matter. Whether it would work in Australia is yet another, although more of that later.

Rather it is a number of smaller things.

First, following the great victory last year Parliament didn’t resume until February this year and the next election is not actually due until the PM will be closer to 67 than 64. While not wanting to be ageist, the days of venerable leaders Macmillan, Churchill, de Gaulle et al were all in their late 60’s early 70’s passed after JFK broke the mould. At 67 it’s a lot harder to maintain that you will review your options at 69 without making a stronger commitment than has been made so far.

Second, the zeitgeist is changing. The PM famously predicted that the times would suit him. There are gathering indications not yet apparent to the Gallery that the world is changing. In the US Kevin Phillips who successfully predicted the emergence of Republican majorities is now (along with other students of demography) suggesting that the pendulum is swinging back the other way. The German election result was won not on the basis of crude anti-Americanism but rather by playing on fears of the US model espoused most strongly by the Republicans and their acolytes in Australia. All the anti-CEO, anti-pure free market capitalism, tree hugging cuddly crap just might be the emerging trend of the future. John Howard may be a genius but not even he could imagine that such times might suit him.

Third, things are actually in a bit of a mess. In the US the market is tanking and the structural imbalances (artificially high dollar, astronomical corporate and household debt levels, current account deficits reaching the red warning line of 5% etc etc) are going to have to be worked through. This has ramifications for us as well as the US perhaps of tsunami proportions. Things despite all the optimism here also aren’t too flash and at some stage the Federal Government is going to have to address the consequences of the all the appalling economic decisions taken to win re-election. Add in the end of a housing bubble and a wise pollie as the PM is might make a calculated estimate that the future might not be as rosy as everyone is saying.

Fourth, going out a winner suddenly looks more attractive in the light of all of the above. You may not make the record for longest-serving but you will end up the second longest serving after Menzies.

Fifth, the Iraq war is going to be fought and over with not the consequences of course well before next year. Despite all the talk about February next year the more likely scenario is any time soon. Despite the propaganda Saddam, is about as dangerous and ineffective as the parliamentary backbench wets. Expect it all to be quick and decisive with the troops home by Christmas. Like the US and Australian economies the fun will be later.

If you had bet on Wendy’s predictions last year you would have done fairly well particularly if you got set early. So take the plunge now and get set soon while the odds are not too bad.