Tassie Lib poll spin leaves the pundits dizzy

Try as you like, it’s hard to make the Tasmanian Liberal Party look good
Every one knows that polls are one thing – but it is how they are spun that really counts.

In the Crikey sealed section last Friday a Tassie Liberal supporter
(staffer?) attempted to put some positive spin on Leader Rene Hidding’s
local EMRS poll results, which show he leads a party with a 19 per cent
primary vote rating. (In fact, it is 18.6 per cent rounded up.)

Here is what that supporter wrote:

“The facts are that the latest poll are basically the same as the
election result with more than two years to the next election.
(The Libs 26% after excluding the undecided and distributing the vote
proportionally compared with 27% at the last election.)

“However, if anything, the very high undecided level is good news for
the Libs in that while voters may not yet be prepared to switch to the
Libs they are starting to unglue themselves from Labor.

“The fact that the preferred Premier rating between Lennon and Hidding
has a differential of only 23 reflects that while people may not yet
know Lennon they don’t instantly like him. 40% for Lennon would have to
be the lowest preferred Premier rating in the country.”

The above statements invite scrutiny and comment.

First, in regard to the contention that the high undecided vote is an
indication that people are “starting to unglue themselves from Labor.”

This statement simply is not correct. In fact, the opposite is true – as the EMRS polls for the past 12 months show:

The above shows that six per cent have gone straight from the Liberals
to undecided while Labor has more than held its ground. It is
Liberal voters who have unglued themselves. Labor just keeps
powering on.

Secondly, to the comment that Lennon has the “lowest preferred Premier
rating in the country.” This is true but only tells half the
story. Here are the most recent preferred premier results (EMRS
for Tasmania, Newspoll for the rest):

Paul Lennon may be the least popular Premier in the country, but
Hidding is the also the least popular opposition leader in the
country. Now, the opposition leaders in Australia are a pretty
lack-lustre lot, so to be bottom of that list makes you pretty damn
bad. The baddest of the bad in fact.

Of course Lennon is not going to be as popular as Jim Bacon; this is
like expecting Beattie or Bracks’ deputy to hold their popularity
rating two weeks after an abdication. It just will not happen.

Tasmanians have Labor so far out in front of the Liberals it is not
funny. The polls indicate they are holding their views on Lennon
as premier for the moment, which is what you would expect as they get
to know him, but there is no indication that they are prepared to
transfer any support to Hidding.

Hidding’s elevation to leader over Bob Cheek was a result, in his own
words, of a “train smash” at the 2002 election. The trouble is
that now he has made train driver, he has no more idea of how to drive
the darn thing.

Hillary Bray can be contacted at hillarybray@crikey.com.au