Six
weeks to go to the New Zealand election, and the polls say it’s neck
and neck. The opposition started the campaign with a clear lead, but
Helen Clark’s Labour Party has been making up ground against the
Nationals, who seem to have been hurt by their apparent willingness to
consider visits by nuclear-powered ships and possible participation in
the Iraq war.

Of the two latest polls, Morgan, released on Friday, has the two major parties each on 38% while the Colmar Brunton poll,
released yesterday, shows Labour on 45% leading National on 41%. While
Colmar Brunton (no, I’d never heard of them either) looks better for
Labour, some of that gain comes at the expense of the Greens. The poll
indicates they would fall below the 5% threshold for party
representation – thus hurting Labour, which needs them as a coalition
partner.

Both poll results would produce a parliament split almost exactly evenly between National/NZ First on the one hand, and
Labour/Greens/Progressives/United
Future on the other. Those who want to check this for themselves can
use the NZ Electoral Commission’s “virtual seat calculator” to translate votes into seats, although it requires assumptions about which
of the minor parties will hold on to their electorate seats.

A clearer view about the likely result is given by that other key indicator – the betting market. Centrebet
has Labour firm favourites at 5-3 on, with National at 6-5 against.
Maybe the punters know more than they’ve been telling the pollsters.