Only three days to go to the
Queensland by-elections of Chatsworth and Redcliffe, and Newspoll has released a
new Queensland poll (even though it’s only a month since the last one). It’s
front page news in The Australian, and it doesn’t look good for Labor.

Labor and the Coalition
(or rather non-Coalition) are neck and neck, each with 50% of the
two-party-preferred vote. That’s a swing of 5.5% since last year’s election, and
6% just since the last poll. Peter Beattie is still ahead as preferred premier,
but his approval rating has dropped eight points to a (for him) remarkably low
53%. The Liberals are still outscoring the Nationals almost 2 to 1 (27% to 15%);
that portends further Liberal-National strife when the election rolls around,
but it won’t help the government in Saturday’s by-elections.

The
Liberals need a swing of 7.1% to take Redcliffe and 11.4% for Chatsworth. If
there really is an underlying swing of five or six per cent, then the extra
boost an opposition usually gets in by-elections will be enough for Redcliffe to
go, and quite probably Chatsworth as well, but that’s a lot of weight to put on
just one Newspoll. William Bowe, the poll bludger has a good wrap-up of both seats,
but he’s not making a call yet on either of them.

Yesterday’s
Newspoll showed that Labor is on the nose federally as well, with a 3% swing against
them since the previous poll. Kim Beazley’s approval ratings continue to plunge,
and it could be that some of that unpopularity is rubbing off on Beattie. But
that’s small consolation; if voters don’t distinguish between state and federal
Labor when talking to the pollsters, they probably won’t do so at the
by-elections either.