It
should be clear to everyone in the financial markets now watching the
takeover bid for Patrick, that Virgin Blue will have to
be jettisoned by Chris Corrigan if he is to fight off Toll. Whether
Corrigan understands that and how Patrick has to quit Virgin Blue to fight off
Toll, is still very much unclear. Certainly from this front page story in today’s Australian, Corrigan was very strong on aviation and his involvement in the
industry.

But in an interview with The Australian,
conducted before this week’s takeover battle, Corrigan argues the domestic
aviation industry is a cornerstone of transport in Australia. “While high-speed rail may work in
high-density regions in Europe, he argues it is the airline business that is the
transport mode of the future for distance-challenged Australia.”

Australia
might be distanced challenged, but Patrick’s future independence will disappear
if he tries to hang on to Virgin Blue. Former Qantas CEO James Strong used to
joke about these aviation writers and executives who ‘loved big shiny toys’ and
‘awoke each morning with a whiff of avgas in their nostrils’ to disparage the
romantic attachment many have to endlessly expanding capacity and not running
airlines in an efficient and business like manner.

There’s no doubt Corrigan has made sure
Virgin Blue is running efficiently, the only question is whether he can see that
its ownership by Patrick is the key destabiliser for
as many shareholders are concerned. That move to control Virgin Blue late last
year and early this year and upset Dickie Branson is
the reason why Patrick is vulnerable to an approach from Toll.

Toll, by linking with Dickie Branson, showed there is a way to separate Virgin
Blue from Patrick. It’s up to Corrigan to find a similar way,
even if it means treating with Dickie, who has spent
most of this week bagging Corrigan and Patrick’s involvement in Virgin
Blue.

But quitting the airline one way or
another is the only way Corrigan has of giving his company a reasonable chance
of remaining out of the clutches of Toll.