A year ago we were in the first
days of an election campaign that the Prime Minister declared was all
about trust. He was resoundingly returned – and looking at both the Newspoll and the ACNielsen it seems the punters still trust Howard.

Voting intention figures are meaningless at this stage of the electoral cycle, but the leaders’ ratings are important.

“John
Howard’s satisfaction rating rose slightly, from 50 per cent to 52 per
cent,” Dennis Shanahan writes about Newspoll. “Dissatisfaction with the
Prime Minister went from 39 per cent to 40 per cent. Mr Howard
maintained a clear two-to-one advantage over Mr Beazley on the question
of who would make the better prime minister, despite a small lift for
Mr Beazley. Mr Howard’s rating went from 57 per cent to 56 per cent and
Mr Beazley’s rose two points to 27 per cent.”

“John Howard’s
approval is steady on 51 per cent and there is no change in the
preferred PM rating, with Mr Howard leading Mr Beazley 53-36 per cent,”
according to ACNielsen.

But Nielsen also puts the parties on an
equal 50/50 footing after the distribution of preferences and goes on
to say, “More than eight out of 10 people are aware of the industrial
relations proposals and of these 59 per cent oppose them (down 1 point
since July), while only 24 per cent (up 3 points) back the industrial
policy. The national poll of 1360 voters, taken at the weekend, found
almost two-thirds oppose the Telstra sale, including 44 per cent of
Coalition voters.”

Incumbents almost always do better in the
preferred leader ratings. But – wannabes take note – today’s polls
suggest that voters still trust John Howard as the best man for the
job, even though they mightn’t be sure of the merits of some of his key
policies.