Egypt’s presidential election
has returned the expected landslide victory for incumbent Hosni
Mubarak, with an estimated 70% of the vote on a turnout of around 30%,
amid widespread claims
of fraud and intimidation. But compared to 1999, when Mubarak recorded
94% support on a turnout that was unofficially said to be as low as
10%, this has at least been a modest step forward for democracy.

The
September election bandwagon rolls into more democratic territory on
Sunday with the Japanese elections, followed by Norway on Monday. The latest poll
in Japan shows Junichiro Koizumi’s LDP leading its main opposition 27%
to 18%. Perhaps the Japanese are not as conservative as we think; in
Australia, privatisation is a liability, but Koizumi’s plan to sell off
Japan’s monolithic post office seems to have captured public
imagination and wrong-footed his opponents.

Last week’s Economist
sounded a note of caution, pointing out that the opposition Democratic
Party actually has better reformist credentials than the LDP: “While Mr
Koizumi is perched on high, hammering away at one issue like a
woodpecker and dazzling the media with his plumage, the DPJ is waving a
giant axe at the base of the tree, frantically trying to attract
voters’ attention.”

But with an electoral system already tilted in its favour, it looks as if the LDP will score a big win. Reports this morning
are that Koizumi may use his new mandate to extend the stay of Japanese
forces in Iraq, currently scheduled to be withdrawn by 14 December.
That may also mean a longer stay for the Australian troops guarding
them.