This election in Japan is different – it attracted voter interest and
media attention like never before. Voter interest was sparked by both
the unexpected calling of the election and a bevy of celebrity
candidates. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi called the snap election
after what he calls the centrepiece of his reform agenda, the
privatization of the postal service, was voted down by rebels from
within his own party. The legislation was defeated 125 to 108 in the
upper house after 22 members of Koizumi’s Liberal Democratic Party
(LDP) crossed the floor to vote with the opposition parties.

This election has garnered greater than usual foreign interest too.
Japan watchers had been hoping the election might finally herald the
arrival of the 2-party system after 60 years of almost uninterrupted
LDP rule. But hopes are likely to be dashed; according to the latest
polls Koizumi’s coalition government is heading to a comfortable
victory on abnormally high voter turnout. The coalition government
holds 283 seats going into the election while the opposition parties
(likely coalition partners) hold 191.

Three distinct phases of this election have become discernible.

1. Initially the Japanese media and the country were in shock that
Koizumi had actually made good on his threat to call the election if
the legislation was defeated. Media pundits immediately began calling
it political suicide, and seriously talking about the possibility of
the Democratic Party (DPJ), lead by Katsuya Okada, forming a coalition
government with the support of two minor parties. You can’t blame them
– the DPJ had eaten away at the LDP’s vote at the last two elections.
At last year’s upper house election they won 50 of the 121 seats up for
grabs, one more than the LDP, and at the 2003 lower house election the
DPJ picked up 40 new seats while the LDP went backwards by 8. The
party’s election policies were thoroughly explained in the party’s
‘manifesto’ – an impressive document that detailed plans for the first
500 days of a DPJ government. The plan included putting an end to
wasteful spending, reducing the number of upper house members by 80,
and abolishing politicians’ special pension entitlements. The
po-faced Okada was looking like Prime Minister material.

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