I was just thinking about “bellwether” seats and I don’t believe I’ve
ever seen a comprehensive list for Australia. The name, of course,
derives from the sheep which led the herd – the wether which had the
bell around its neck.

It was a quiet sitting night, so I thought I’d do my own. I excluded
the “class of 1996” and worked backwards. Here it is – Australia’s
Bellwether Seats:

  • Gilmore since 1993
  • McEwen since 1993
  • Macquarie since 1993
  • Moreton since 1990
  • Page since 1990
  • Forde since 1987
  • Petrie since 1987
  • Lindsay since 1984
  • Makin since 1984
  • Hughes since 1983
  • Robertson since 1983

And an extra-special mention to the runners-up…

  • Herbert since 1975
  • Leichhardt since 1972
  • Eden-Monaro since 1972

And the absolutely remarkable… Macarthur which has “picked” every election result since 1949.

Leading the getting it consistently wrong category is:

  • Wills since 1993
  • Isaacs since 1990

And the biggest loser is… Bruce went the opposite way to Government at every election since 1983.