British politics has taken on a more lively aspect since the election of David Cameron as Conservative Party leader. A series of opinion polls have shown the Tories in the lead; the latest, published in yesterday’s Guardian, shows them one percentage point ahead of Labour, 37-36, with the Liberal Democrats back on 21%.

The Guardian reports this is only the second time the
Conservatives have been ahead since 1993 – an astonishing measure of
how low their stocks have been. At this year’s election, despite a
swing back to the Tories, Labour led by 35 to 32%, with the Lib
Dems on 22.

The Liberal Democrats could be big losers out of the Cameron-inspired
Tory revival, as middle-class voters return to their natural home. That
possibility has already resulted in pressure on their leader, Charles
Kennedy, whose performance has been less than inspiring. Recent reports, however, say that Kennedy is determined to tough it out, and the lack of any obvious challenger may still save him.

In any case, there is an upside for the Lib Dems as well: although
their own vote may decline, a boost to the Conservatives also means a
boost to the chance of a hung parliament, in which they will hold the
balance of power. Although Blair won an absolute majority with only
35.2%, Cameron would need considerably more than that, because the
distribution of votes and seats tends to favour Labour.

Anything less than about 40%
probably means the Tories would fall short of governing in their own
right. Fundamentally, that is what the Lib Dems are holding out for. It
only has to happen once, because the price of Lib Dem support for a
coalition government will be reform of the voting system, which would
end their under-representation and usher in a genuine three-party
system.

The other loser from the recent polls is Gordon Brown, Tony Blair’s heir presumptive in the Labour Party. The polls show
the Conservative lead increasing when Cameron is matched against Brown.
Hypothetical questions like that need to be taken with a grain of salt,
but it seems clear that the advent of the younger Cameron will create
pressure for Labour to come up with its own generational change on
Blair’s retirement, maybe bypassing Brown entirely.

Of course the next election is unlikely to be held before 2009, so
there is plenty of time for Cameron’s honeymoon to end. But he seems to
be off to a good start.