Christian Kerr writes:


An election held now would be too close,
the latest polling from Roy Morgan Research shows.

Polling taken on the weekend of May 13/14 –
the weekend after the budget delivering tax cuts – put support for the
L-NP at 42% (up three points in a week but down 4.4 points since the
October
2004 election), while Labor was on 40.5% (down 1.5 points and up 2.9
since
the 2004 election).

If preferences were distributed as they
were at the 2004 election (ALP 60.5% , L-NP 39.5%), the
two-party preferred vote would be Labor 51% to the Coalition’s 49% – too close to call.

Support for The Greens was 7% (down
2.5% in the week following the budget), Family First 1.5% (unchanged),
Australian Democrats 2.5% (unchanged) and One Nation 0.5% (down 0.5 per
cent). Other parties and independents polled 6% (up 1.5%).

An overwhelming majority of the electorate
– 70% – however, believes the Coalition will win the next election, a
rise of 9.5% in a week. Only 20% – down eight – thinks Labor
will win. 10% were undecided,

Gary Morgan says: “A pre-budget sharp
decline in consumer confidence and L-NP vote after the RBA’s decision to raise
interest rates by 0.25% was offset following the release of the budget
that delivered tax cuts for all.

“What happens in the economy from now until
the election will decide who wins the next Federal election.”