In recent weeks the Liberal leadership has been the main political story, but in this morning’s AgePaul Austin
takes the opportunity to consider the longevity of Victorian premier
Steve Bracks. Like John Howard, Bracks gained the leadership by
elbowing aside the man who is now his treasurer, but otherwise the
cases are rather different. Nonetheless, it’s interesting to look at
Labor’s record of succession planning in the states.

Of the six
leaders who led Labor to victory in the states over the years
1995-2002, three are no longer in office: Jim Bacon and Geoff Gallop
resigned due to ill health, and Bob Carr, the first elected, retired
last year after ten years in office. In each case, the leadership
transition was managed smoothly and appears to have been a success.
Paul Lennon kept Labor’s majority intact at the subsequent election,
Alan Carpenter is travelling well in Western Australia, and Morris
Iemma, while still facing a difficult task, looks to have improved the
government’s prospects since Carr’s departure.

Of the other
three, Peter Beattie’s deputy, Anna Bligh, is clearly heir presumptive.
Mike Rann in South Australia has just won a landslide victory and looks
like sticking around for a while yet. And Bracks, the youngest of the
three, now has a group of reasonably experienced ministers who would be
capable of taking over if he fell under a bus.

The lack of
talent in state politics is a common complaint, but at least in Labor’s
case it doesn’t seem to be a problem at the top.
Circumstances
help; Labor’s leaders are not political geniuses, but in good economic
times they are competent enough to handle everything the Liberals have
been able to throw at them.

How many more records will fall is
an interesting question. As Austin notes, if Bracks serves out another
term after this year’s election he will be Victoria’s
second-longest-serving premier. Howard has to serve until 2012 to beat
Menzies’ record, by which time he would be 72 (something that no longer
looks impossible, although still unlikely). But for Bracks to overtake
Henry Bolte for the Victorian record
he would have to serve till the beginning of 2017, at which point he
would still only be 63 – younger than Howard was at the last election.