“Thanks to all the bloggers for taking note of the ‘poll wars’ in The Australian,” Newspoll boss Martin O’Shannessy writes in the Oz today.

They’re busy, busy, busy. When Crikey dropped by The Poll Bludger’s post on yesterday’s Newspoll at around 10:30am this morning, there were 154 posts there. The number was up to 250 at Dennis Shanahan’s blog at The Australian.

Much of the blog buzz bags Shanahan and the Oz for their reporting of yesterday’s 56/44% Labor lead. The Australian is referred to as “the Government Gazette” across many.

That is simplistic. A reverse argument could be applied — that Shanahan’s commentary actually plays into Kevin Rudd’s hands by making the competition appear closer.

Shanahan won’t have forgotten his own commentary from the week after the Budget: “If there’s no delayed Newspoll bounce or any sign of a Coalition recovery by mid-June, it will be getting too late to engineer the comebacks of 2001 and 2004.”

His blog commentary on yesterday’s results is pretty blunt:

The headline figures are bad news for the Coalition — no change in the disastrous two-party-preferred result of 56 per cent for Labor and 44 per cent for the Government.

Rudd would win handsomely with these numbers.

The Coalition’s unchanged primary vote of 39 per cent, which hasn’t been above 40 per cent since February, will continue to cause despair and trepidation in government ranks.

These are the figures Peter Brent picks up on with his commentary on Mumble today:

What the Coalition desperately needs is better voting intentions. Votes win elections, not all that other fairy floss.

On the other hand, no-one really expects Rudd to win by 56 to 44, and so unless we’re headed for the biggest wipe-out since 1966, voting intentions must narrow before election day.

This is the real issue at the moment. One of the Poll Bludger’s visitors says: “I must confess myself fascinated by the eerie succession of News and ACNielsen polls with Coalition on 39. Only one poll by either pollster since mid-May has not said Coalition 39.”

Another observes: “Anything over 42% for Labor, with Greens preferences in tow, will see them have a high chance of victory. Currently it sits at between 46-51. That is possible landslide territory, with Labor picking up seats it never dreamed of in 2005.

“Also, this is a snapshot. Examine primary vote intentions over a trend to determine how this election will go. Currently we see them both relatively flatline. If August comes with it still flatline, this race is over.”

The poor primary vote is the key issue, as Shanahan says on his blog. Yet the bounce in the Prime Minister’s approval rating is significant, too. The explanation for it is easy — the impact of the Northern Territory intervention.

It’s importance, however, is a reminder of the power of incumbency; the power to seize control of the agenda – and maybe lift those primary figures, too.

Send your tips to boss@crikey.com.au or submit them anonymously here.