The government’s primary votes support remains unchanged on 40.5%, six and a half points behind the ALP (47%, down 0.5%), according to the latest face-to-face Morgan polling.

With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 election, the two-party preferred vote remained unchanged, with Labor on 55% and the government on 45%.

Among the minor parties, support for The Greens is 6.5% (up 1%), Family First 1.5% (down 0.5%), Australian Democrats 1% (down 0.5%), One Nation 0.5% (up 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 3% (unchanged).

On the important question of who voters think will win the next federal election, 58% (up 6%) think the ALP will win, 28% (down 6.5%) think the government will be returned and 14% (up 0.5%) can’t say.

49% percent (down 6.5%) of electors think Australia is heading in the “right direction”, 33.5% (up 3.5%) think the country is heading in the “wrong direction” and 17.5% (up 3%) are undecided.

This means that 17% (down 2.5%) of all electors are soft Labor voters – voters who say the country is heading in the right direction but also say they would vote Labor if an election was held today.

“The unchanged Morgan Poll two party Labor lead of 10% shows they would win a Federal election easily if it were held now,” pollster Gary Morgan says.

He adds “In the last two weeks there has been a significant increase in the number of electors who think the ALP will win at the next Federal election.”

Yet the government’s primary vote is still above the 40% mark – if only just – in Morgan, as it was in Monday’s Galaxy results and last week’s Newspoll.

Government strategists will be watching the primary figure, as they will be watching the soft Labor vote.

The high number of people who expect Labor will win may well diminish protest votes against the government, too. Together, they offer hope for the Liberals that the parties’ chances are not yet polls apart,

This latest face to face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekends of July 21/22 and 28/29, 2007, with an Australia wide cross-section of 1,772 electors.