The Labor Party would win in a landslide if an election was held now, according to the latest telephone Morgan Poll.

Morgan’s is the first major polling since Wednesday’s interest rate rise.

Interviewing conducted on the nights of August 8/9 gives Labor a 17-point lead on a party preferred basis, 58.5 to 41.5%; a drop of 0.5% for the ALP since the last Morgan telephone poll.

Labor’s primary vote is 49.5%, a rise of 1.5%. The Government is down 1.5% to 36.5%, the Greens are down 2.5% to 7% and independents and other parties are down 0.5% to 7%.

51.5% of all electors survey think Australia is heading in the right direction, 2.5% higher than the most recent face to face Morgan polling; while 34.5% think Australia is heading in the wrong direction and 14% are undecided.

“Despite Labor having a 17% lead, a majority of electors (51.5%) still think Australia is heading in the right direction,” pollster Gary Morgan says.

“The question is now: Will these electors switch back to the government during the frenzy of the election campaign?’”

These are the main findings of a Roy Morgan telephone survey conducted over the last two nights with 589 Australian electors.

Meanwhile, Richard Farmer writes:

The battle for Bennelong is looking interesting again if the market is any judge.

Maxine McKew has firmed considerably on the Crikey Election Indicator and is now rated as a 32.9% chance to beat Prime Minister John Howard in his own seat.

A month ago the Crikey Indicator, based on the odds at the Betfair betting exchange, had her chance down at only 25%.

The Crikey Bennelong Election Indicator

26-Feb-07 18-Jun-07 16-Jul-07 10-Aug-07
John Howard 60.8% 73.8% 74.4% 66.2%
Maxine McKew 34.7%  25.1% 25.0% 32.9%
Any other candidate 4.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.9%

Just as the market is rating Ms McKew an improving chance, so too is the Crikey Indicator showing an improvement for Labor overall. For the first time ever, the Indicator is giving Labor better than a 60% chance of becoming the government when the election is held.

Crikey Federal Election Indicator

Date Coalition Labor
16-Aug-06 57.0% 43.0%
09-Oct-06 57.0% 43.0%
07-Dec-06 61.0% 39.0%
19-Feb-07 49.5% 50.5%
20-Mar-07 48.5% 51.5%
23-Apr-07 46.6% 53.4%
22-May-07 46.8% 53.2%
1-Jun-07 43.1% 56.9%
23-Jun-07 49.6% 50.4%
27-Jun-07 50.0% 50.0%
30-Jul-07 43.0% 57.0%
10-Aug-07 39.1% 60.9%

We will now start updating the Crikey Indicator daily on our special Crikey election website which will also contain election betting information. Would-be election punters are advised to start studying the election formguide in the Crikey Federal election book on sale now!

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