I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – the election will be a choice between the “It’s Time” factor and economic management.

Newspoll has barely budged today in terms of voting intention, although the Prime Minister’s standing dropped dramatically when voters were asked “John Howard or Kevin Rudd – Who do you think is more capable of handling the economy?”

But that’s not the whole question. Ask this one and see what response you get. Who do you think is more capable of handling the economy? Peter Garrett? Julia Gillard? Kim Carr? By the time you mention the Melbournian mad mullah lookalike, the infinitesimal number of voters who actually know who he is will either be laughing or crying.

Some pundits say the election will be decided on IR. Sure, that’s an important issue for many voters, but my guess is that many of these already have very firm views on the issue – and many of these would do well to remember that it’s well over a quarter of a century since Bob Hawke stepped down as secretary of the ACTU and that no union leader has come close in winning the same respect, let alone affection, that he engendered from the community.

The economy is it – and the economy is a trump card for the Howard government, and the economy is why they will win a fifth term.

The difficulty they have is knowing how to play the card. They can’t look too cocky.

Labor been having a lot of fun with the PM’s line “Working families in Australia have never been better off.” As well they should. It’s a very silly thing for a prime minister to say.

The government has had trouble relating prosperity through to the experience of ordinary Australians. Much of this is because of the atmosphere of downward envy they’ve engendered. They’ve been forced to rely on the macro figures.

But the government know this and is working on the nuances.

It’s hard to disagree with the PM’s comments on ABC Radio this morning on the Newspoll: “That was an inevitable result given that there was an interest rate rise of a quarter of one per cent the week before last.

“That poll was taken in the slipstream of that.”

As the PM said, the election campaign has “only just begun”.

He’s right to say, “The history of elections in this country shows time and time again there are enormous changes often between how the public judges people this far out from an election and on actual election day.

“And I have little doubt that as we get closer to the election the polls will alter.”

Another rates rise before the end of the year seems unlikely now. That’s a plus for the economic credentials of the government.

Wobbles in international financial markets will make voters more likely to stick with the managers that steered them through the Asian crash of 1997 and the wake of the dot com bust.

Get your pitch on economics right – and your pitch on “echonomics” – and it doesn’t look as if it’s time.