The British-owned wagering agency, Portlandbet, which is also incorporated in Australia, is making an intriguing call on the outcome of the Federal Election. It is offering Labor at $1.50, the equivalent of 2-1 on, and the Coalition at $2.75. At those odds, Kevin Rudd is on his way to The Lodge and the ALP is poised to swamp the government benches in a landslide.

But hang on a minute! Portlandbet is also offering odds on every seat in the Federal Parliament and a quick check of odds in each electorate reveals that the betting outfit believes the outcome will be: Labor 75 seats, Coalition 73 and Others 2 (Bob Katter and Tony Windsor).

The State and Territory breakdown is: NSW Labor 25, Coalition 23, Other 1; Victoria Labor 18, Coalition 18; Qld Labor 9, Coalition 19, Other 1; WA Labor 7, Coalition 8; SA Labor 6, Coalition 5; Tas Labor 5, Coalition 0; ACT Labor 2, Coalition 0; and NT Labor 2, Coalition 0.

In other words, the Portlandbet market presents a conundrum: at 2-1 on Labor should be guaranteed office by 20 seats, but the seat-by-seat betting shows Labor in by a whisker with two conservative Independents, Katter and Windsor, able to create mayhem.

In this scenario, one of the Independents would become Speaker to take the heat off Labor. Prime Minister John Howard has told senior colleagues he won’t call the election this week but at the end of next week after parliament rises, almost guaranteeing a poll by the end of October.