Labor’s primary vote has reached its highest level since Kevin Rudd took over the leadership last year – 54%, a rise of 4.5 points – according to the latest poll from Roy Morgan Research . Support for Coalition has dropped 3.5 points to 36%. The two party preferred vote splits Labor’s way, 60.5% to 39.5%, a four point turnaround for both parties.
Among the minor parties, support for The Greens is 5.5% (down 0.5%), Family First 1% (down 0.5%), One Nation 0.5% (down 0.5%); Australian Democrats 0.5% (unchanged), and other parties and independents 2.5% (up 0.5%). Despite the swing to the ALP, fewer voters believe that Labor will win the election.
56.5% – down 6.5% – of voters think Labor will win, 30.5% – up 4.5% – believe the Government will be returned and 13% – up 2% – can’t say. A majority of voters – 52%, down 0.5% – believe Australia is heading in the right direction, 32% (unchanged) think Australia is heading in the wrong direction and 16% – up 0.5% – are undecided. 20% are soft Labor voters – voters who say they believe Australia is heading in the right direction but intend to vote Labor.
Pollster Gary Morgan says: “The two party preferred result of this Morgan Poll (60.5% cf. 39.5%) is almost a replication of the result in early September . In that time the Greens vote has dropped 3.5%, while the ALP vote has increased by 4.5%, which suggests some left-leaning electors have decided to give their vote to the ALP.”
So… Is the Liberal leadership open again? Or do we have to wait for Tuesday?
This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekend of September 22/23, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 972 electors
Meanwhile, Peter Brent from Mumble Elections writes:
Today’s poll-mix includes a record five published surveys taken over the fortnight ending last Sunday: a Newspoll, Nielsen, Galaxy and two Morgans. The weighted aggregate two party preferred vote is 56.5 to 43.5 in Labor’s favour.
Such a result would translate into Labor winning about two-thirds of House of Representatives seats.
I can’t understand the assumption that a view that “Australia is heading in the right direction” is an indication of “soft” Labor support. Many, I’m sure, see the place heading in “the right direction” simply because it looks as if Labor will win!
I am sceptical about the little reverse-boost that Newspoll and Galaxy seem to give Howard when the pressure seems to be building against him in his party. This poll suggests that the two recent News Ltd polls were wrong? Murdoch “doing Howard slowly”?
Surely the Liberal leadership has been well and truly settled, at least I can’t imagine the Libs being spooked even by opinion poll results such as these. No doubt they are working overtime with their own research looking for an opening to wrong foot Rudd
Surely the Liberal leadership has been well and truly settled, at least I can’t imagine the Libs being spooked even by opinion poll results such as these. No doubt they are working overtime with their own research looking for an opening to wrong foot Rudd