Caulfield Guineas day is generally regarded as one of the best in the Spring Racing Carnival, but tomorrow’s program shows evidence of the impact of equine flu on fields in major races … an impact that is likely to grow in the weeks ahead.

While Victoria continues to avoid equine flu (miraculously) the absence of Sydney, and to a lesser extent Brisbane and regional areas, horse flue has halved the fields in two of the group one races tomorrow. The Yalumba Stakes has attracted a field of just 8 horses, while the Toorak Handicap has 10 starters. The combined prize money for these feature events is just on three quarters of a million dollars.

The quality of the fields in the seven group races tomorrow has held up remarkably well. But the absence of horses from equine flu infected states, as well as the absence of Japanese horses, is starting to show up in field sizes.

With the Caulfield Cup on Saturday week, and the Cox Plate on the 26th, leading into the four days of the Melbourne Cup Carnival at Flemington, the shortage of group level horses is going to have an even greater impact.

Racing Victoria and the Victorian Government are under fire for their hard line stance against any horses from NSW or Queensland being allowed to travel to Melbourne for the carnival.

The most unfortunate case concerns Leica Falcon, proven over 3200 metres and trained within sight of the Victorian border, but on the NSW side of the border near Albury. Even though the immediate area is equine flu free, Victoria won’t bend the rules. On balance it is right not to do so.

And its stance will be vindicated if test results later today on an equestrian horse in North West Tasmania are positive. It will also be a disaster for the Tasmanian racing industry so far unaffected by equine flu. If they are positive then the transmission can only have been by a human – no horse movements into Tasmania have been allowed since the first outbreak in Sydney in August.

To ensure the Spring Racing Carnival continues Victorian authorities simply have to maintain the strictest controls over horses and stable staff and anyone else from interstate connected with horses, including equestrian horses. It has no other option.

Tomorrow’s feature race, the Caulfield Guineas worth one million dollars, has attracted a full field, but as in several other major events on the program, the favourite will be odds on. Weekend Hustler has won just $60,000 in stakes, and has never won at a Saturday metropolitan meeting, but the 3-year-old gelding’s midweek form reads “2 Sept, very good win; 19 Sept, extraordinary win; 30 Sept, brilliant again.”

It reads the winner!