Doris Lessing may have been a surprise winner of the Literature prize, but the Norwegian Nobel committee did the right thing by the punters, with favourite Al Gore sharing the Peace prize with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Speculation immediately turned to Gore’s intentions in the 2008 presidential race, and his refusal to categorically rule out another bid.

In reality, however, the Nobel prize makes Gore even less likely to realise his dream of being US president. After the initial surge of interest, the movement on the betting market is now against him: Intrade has a Gore candidacy at about 7-2, and about 8-1 against him being the Democrat nominee.

In most countries, being honoured by the international community would improve a candidate’s standing. But America’s sense of itself makes such recognition at best a two-edged sword; its voters don’t like to be told what to do, and many of them seem to think they have nothing to learn from the rest of the world.

The fact that George Bush Jr had never travelled overseas before running for president didn’t seem to count against him, while his opponent in 2004, John Kerry, almost had to apologise for the fact that he could speak French. The Nobel prize could well reinforce negative perceptions of the Democrats in general and Gore in particular.

More significantly, Nobel laureate Gore now has more to risk if he were to enter the race. He was already facing an uphill task to overhaul frontrunner Hillary Clinton for the nomination, and his new distinction would make the humiliation of losing to her even greater.

No-one should underestimate the bitterness between Gore and the Clintons. As a candidate in 2000 Gore was keen to establish his own identity, but many observers blamed his poor performance on his ham-fisted attempts to dissociate himself from Bill Clinton.

Clinton’s s*xual escapades obviously offended Gore’s puritanism, but at the time the Clinton presidency was seen as a great success: the logical strategy for a Democrat was simply to cling to his coat-tails. Instead, Gore kept the Clintons at arm’s length, and his victory was so narrow that the supreme court was able to wrest it away from him.

An unsuccessful attempt to beat Hillary Clinton next year would be reliving the nightmare. Much better for Gore to rest on his laurels as the international environmental hero, and leave domestic politics in more accomplished hands.