It wouldn’t be quite right to say there’s a consensus about what result to expect tomorrow. There are actually two of them.

Among observers who know what they’re talking about, and who aren’t trying to sell newspapers or ad time, there’s a consensus that it will be a Labor landslide. Among observers who fail one or both of those tests, and also among politicians, there’s a consensus that it’s going to be close.

You’ll gather from my description that I don’t think the second group is worth a second glance. There is no doubt that Labor is headed for a comfortable victory; the interesting question is whether it will be merely decisive or an absolute massacre. The line between the two is probably somewhere around a Labor gain of 30 seats, and it’s probably no coincidence that the forecasts of most psephologists tend to congregate around that figure.

After much hesitation, I’ve decided to tip on the high side of that range: I’m saying 35 gains, for a Labor majority of 40 seats (95-43-2).

That’s still less than the latest Newspoll state breakdown, which said 39 gains, and certainly less than this morning’s Nielsen poll, which would put Labor over the 100-seat mark.

As Simon Jackman said yesterday (referring to Newspoll), “I doubt that it will be this big … But it will be big.”

Here it is seat by seat, separated into definite Labor gains, those that I think are likely but uncertain, and those that are unlikely but possible. (Only one Labor seat, Cowan in WA, is even remotely at risk, and I think it’ll hold on.)

NSW:

Definite: Bennelong, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Lindsay, Page, Parramatta;
Likely: North Sydney, Paterson, Robertson, Wentworth;
Possible: Cowper, Gilmore.

Victoria:

Definite: Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe;
Likely: Gippsland, McEwen;
Possible: Dunkley, McMillan.

Queensland:

Definite: Blair, Bonner, Bowman, Herbert, Moreton, Petrie;
Likely: Flynn, Leichhardt, Longman, Ryan;
Possible: Dickson, Forde, Hinkler.

WA:

Definite: Hasluck, Stirling;
Possible: Canning.

SA:

Definite: Boothby, Kingston, Makin, Sturt, Wakefield;
Possible: Grey.

TAS:

Definite: Bass, Braddon.

NT:

Likely: Solomon.

And as a bonus, here’s my guess at the Senate: the Liberals will lose three seats, one in SA to Nick Xenophon, one in Tassie to the ALP, and one in the ACT to the Greens. In addition, the Nationals will lose their Queensland seat to Family First. The four Democrat seats will go two Labor (Victoria & Queensland) and two Greens (WA and SA).

That’s a total of 18 ALP, 14 Liberals, four Greens, two Nationals, one Family First & Xenophon, giving Labor + Greens exactly half (38) in the new Senate.