While the overall result was about what I expected, the seat-swing make-up wasn’t. Elections in this country have traditionally hinged largely on the outer suburban mortgage belt and the regions, but I had anticipated that this time the mortgage belt might stick with the government and it would be up to everyone else to swing.

How wrong I was. This change of government was business as usual.

This table shows all seats in order of Saturday’s swing to Labor (using latest data). I’ve added the AEC Socio Demographics (Inner Metropolitan, Outer Metropolitan, Provincial or Rural) and the swing eleven years ago in 1996 that ended the Keating government.

The top is littered with Rural and Outer Metros, while the bottom contains lots of inner cities. And see Macarthur: almost identical swings in ’96 and ’07 (12 and 11 respectively). It’s on a knife-edge, but if Macarthur goes to Labor its bellwether status will remain intact from its creation in 1949.

Seats in order of swing

Seat

AEC Geographic

Swing ‘07

Swing ‘96

Leichhardt (Qld)

Rural

14.8

-5.5

Forde (Qld)

Rural

14.6

-9.4

Dawson (Qld)

Rural

13.6

-6.0

Calwell (Vic)

Outer Metro

11.2

0.1

Barker (SA)

Rural

11.0

-4.9

Macarthur (NSW)

Outer Metro

11.0

-12.0

Holt (Vic)

Outer Metro

10.7

0.4

Groom (Qld)

Provincial

10.5

-7.2

Blair (Qld)

Rural

10.4

NA

Longman (Qld)

Rural

10.2

-8.1

Lindsay (NSW)

Outer Metro

9.8

-11.8

Fairfax (Qld)

Rural

9.8

-8.1

Petrie (Qld)

Outer Metro

9.6

-9.9

Mitchell (NSW)

Outer Metro

9.6

-5.7

Grey (SA)

Rural

9.3

-6.5

Throsby (NSW)

Provincial

9.3

-4.4

Dickson (Qld)

Outer Metro

9.2

-5.7

Rankin (Qld)

Outer Metro

9.0

-11.7

Hume (NSW)

Rural

8.9

-8.1

Dobell (NSW)

Provincial

8.9

-6.7

Bowman (Qld)

Outer Metro

8.9

-9.0

Flynn (Qld)

Rural

8.9

NA

Makin (SA)

Outer Metro

8.8

-4.8

Aston (Vic)

Outer Metro

8.4

-3.0

Greenway (NSW)

Outer Metro

8.4

-10.0

Chifley (NSW)

Outer Metro

8.3

-8.0

Fisher (Qld)

Provincial

8.2

-10.0

Page (NSW)

Rural

8.1

-4.4

Capricornia (Qld)

Provincial

8.1

-6.4

Werriwa (NSW)

Outer Metro

7.9

-9.6

Banks (NSW)

Inner Metro

7.8

-9.1

Parramatta (NSW)

Inner Metro

7.7

-7.1

Moreton (Qld)

Inner Metro

7.6

-5.3

Wakefield (SA)

Outer Metro

7.5

-3.0

Indi (Vic)

Rural

7.4

-4.5

Oxley (Qld)

Outer Metro

7.4

-19.3

Robertson (NSW)

Provincial

7.3

-9.1

Maranoa (Qld)

Rural

7.3

-7.6

Prospect (NSW)

Outer Metro

7.3

-5.1

Mayo (SA)

Rural

7.2

-4.6

Lalor (Vic)

Outer Metro

7.1

-0.5

Hinkler (Qld)

Rural

6.8

-10.4

Ryan (Qld)

Outer Metro

6.8

-6.2

Port Adelaide (SA)

Inner Metro

6.8

-5.0

Eden-Monaro (NSW)

Rural

6.7

-9.0

Corangamite (Vic)

Provincial

6.6

-1.7

Gellibrand (Vic)

Inner Metro

6.6

-4.3

Deakin (Vic)

Outer Metro

6.5

-1.9

Richmond (NSW)

Rural

6.4

-8.5

Hughes (NSW)

Outer Metro

6.4

-11.3

Sturt (SA)

Inner Metro

6.4

-4.3

Herbert (Qld)

Provincial

6.3

-9.9

Cunningham (NSW)

Provincial

6.3

-5.0

McEwen (Vic)

Rural

6.2

-1.5

Cook (NSW)

Inner Metro

6.2

-8.8

Murray (Vic)

Rural

6.2

-3.4

Adelaide (SA)

Inner Metro

6.1

-2.2

Ballarat (Vic)

Provincial

6.1

-2.1

Fadden (Qld)

Outer Metro

6.1

-12.7

Isaacs (Vic)

Outer Metro

6.1

-2.4

Newcastle (NSW)

Provincial

6.0

-5.7

Scullin (Vic)

Outer Metro

6.0

-1.7

Casey (Vic)

Outer Metro

5.9

-2.5

Cowper (NSW)

Rural

5.9

-7.5

Gilmore (NSW)

Rural

5.7

-6.7

La Trobe (Vic)

Outer Metro

5.6

-0.1

Shortland (NSW)

Provincial

5.6

-9.2

Gorton (Vic)

Outer Metro

5.6

NA

Paterson (NSW)

Rural

5.5

-3.7

Dunkley (Vic)

Outer Metro

5.5

-1.0

Macquarie (NSW)

Outer Metro

5.5

-6.5

Wills (Vic)

Inner Metro

5.5

2.0

Maribyrnong (Vic)

Outer Metro

5.5

0.0

Lyons (Tas)

Rural

5.4

-2.5

Watson (NSW)

Inner Metro

5.4

-3.2

Moncrieff (Qld)

Provincial

5.3

-7.3

Bendigo (Vic)

Provincial

5.3

-2.2

Hotham (Vic)

Outer Metro

5.3

1.4

Bonner (Qld)

Outer Metro

5.3

NA

Bennelong (NSW)

Inner Metro

5.2

-7.0

McPherson (Qld)

Provincial

5.2

-8.6

Menzies (Vic)

Outer Metro

5.1

-1.7

Lyne (NSW)

Rural

5.1

-11.2

Farrer (NSW)

Rural

5.1

-3.8

Forrest (WA)

Rural

5.0

-1.9

Riverina (NSW)

Rural

4.9

-8.1

Hunter (NSW)

Rural

4.9

-7.0

Hindmarsh (SA)

Inner Metro

4.8

-6.4

Chisholm (Vic)

Inner Metro

4.7

-2.2

Fowler (NSW)

Outer Metro

4.7

-3.7

Parkes (NSW)

Rural

4.6

-6.0

Jagajaga (Vic)

Outer Metro

4.6

-0.6

Barton (NSW)

Inner Metro

4.6

-5.1

Charlton (NSW)

Provincial

4.6

-7.8

Batman (Vic)

Inner Metro

4.6

-3.0

Bruce (Vic)

Outer Metro

4.5

-0.8

Kingsford Smith (NSW)

Inner Metro

4.5

-5.1

Berowra (NSW)

Outer Metro

4.4

-6.2

Lowe (NSW)

Inner Metro

4.4

-7.5

North Sydney (NSW)

Inner Metro

4.3

-6.0

Kingston (SA)

Outer Metro

4.3

-3.5

Wannon (Vic)

Rural

4.2

-2.8

Goldstein (Vic)

Inner Metro

4.2

-2.0

Kalgoorlie (WA)

Rural

4.0

-6.6

Bass (Tas)

Provincial

4.0

-4.6

Canning (WA)

Outer Metro

4.0

-0.9

Wide Bay (Qld)

Rural

3.9

-9.7

Reid (NSW)

Inner Metro

3.9

-7.4

O’Connor (WA)

Rural

3.8

-1.9

Pearce (WA)

Provincial

3.7

-3.4

Griffith (Qld)

Outer Metro

3.7

-7.4

Grayndler (NSW)

Inner Metro

3.6

-6.4

Mallee (Vic)

Rural

3.5

-8.6

Bradfield (NSW)

Inner Metro

3.4

-2.7

Lingiari (NT)

Rural

3.4

NA

Corio (Vic)

Provincial

3.3

-2.0

Hasluck (WA)

Outer Metro

3.1

NA

Lilley (Qld)

Inner Metro

3.1

-6.9

Blaxland (NSW)

Inner Metro

3.1

-9.1

Solomon (NT)

Inner Metro

3.0

NA

Mackellar (NSW)

Outer Metro

3.0

-5.4

Braddon (Tas)

Rural

3.0

-2.9

Flinders (Vic)

Rural

2.9

-4.4

Tangney (WA)

Inner Metro

2.9

-0.3

Brisbane (Qld)

Inner Metro

2.9

-5.8

Denison (Tas)

Inner Metro

2.6

-2.7

Melbourne Ports (Vic)

Inner Metro

2.4

0.2

Boothby (SA)

Outer Metro

2.0

-3.8

Gippsland (Vic)

Rural

1.9

-2.8

Higgins (Vic)

Inner Metro

1.9

-1.4

Perth (WA)

Inner Metro

1.9

0.3

Moore (WA)

Outer Metro

1.8

0.6

Fraser (ACT)

Inner Metro

1.8

-4.7

Sydney (NSW)

Inner Metro

1.8

-5.7

Canberra (ACT)

Inner Metro

1.6

-3.3

Brand (WA)

Provincial

1.5

-3.5

Warringah (NSW)

Inner Metro

1.3

-5.1

Fremantle (WA)

Inner Metro

1.3

-3.5

Melbourne (Vic)

Inner Metro

0.9

-3.5

Curtin (WA)

Inner Metro

0.8

1.2

McMillan (Vic)

Rural

0.8

-2.6

Stirling (WA)

Inner Metro

0.8

-3.7

Calare (NSW)

Rural

0.6

-7.0

Kooyong (Vic)

Inner Metro

0.2

-0.5

Swan (WA)

Inner Metro

-0.2

-3.9

Wentworth (NSW)

Inner Metro

-0.9

-2.4

Cowan (WA)

Outer Metro

-2.2

-1.5

Franklin (Tas)

Outer Metro

-2.6

-2.8

Because NSW and Queensland did most of the heavy lifting in both landslides, I’ve extracted the top 20 seats in those two states. (The nationwide swings were about 5 percent in 1996 and 6.5 percent in 2007.) See below; again lots of big numbers in the right hand column as well. In some cases the column entries are almost identical.

Top 20 Qld and NSW swingers

Seat

AEC Geo

Swing ‘07

Swing ‘96

Leichhardt (Qld)

Rural

14.8

-5.5

Forde (Qld)

Rural

14.6

-9.4

Dawson (Qld)

Rural

13.6

-6.0

Macarthur (NSW)

Outer Metro

11.0

-12.0

Groom (Qld)

Provincial

10.5

-7.2

Blair (Qld)

Rural

10.4

NA

Longman (Qld)

Rural

10.2

-8.1

Lindsay (NSW)

Outer Metro

9.8

-11.8

Fairfax (Qld)

Rural

9.8

-8.1

Petrie (Qld)

Outer Metro

9.6

-9.9

Mitchell (NSW)

Outer Metro

9.6

-5.7

Throsby (NSW)

Provincial

9.3

-4.4

Dickson (Qld)

Outer Metro

9.2

-5.7

Rankin (Qld)

Outer Metro

9.0

-11.7

Hume (NSW)

Rural

8.9

-8.1

Dobell (NSW)

Provincial

8.9

-6.7

Bowman (Qld)

Outer Metro

8.9

-9.0

Flynn (Qld)

Rural

8.9

NA

Greenway (NSW)

Outer Metro

8.4

-10.0

Chifley (NSW)

Outer Metro

8.3

-8.0

So “middle Australia” did largely decide this election.