The glow around the Rudd Government at the Bali climate change conference is dimming by the day and there is now a danger that the diplomatic cachet that Kyoto ratification brought will be dissipated by the time the prime minister arrives.

In the at-times feverish environment of the conferences of the parties, a constellation of factors are at play.

At the centre of the problem is the Australian delegation, or rather the inner core of the delegation that forms the negotiating team.

This group is dominated by DFAT officials who have for years prosecuted the Howard Government’s climate strategy — obstructionist, virulently anti-European, prone to read everything in trade terms, and taught to believe that the “national interest” is indistinguishable from the commercial interests of the fossil fuel industries.

There are one or two senior members of the delegation who have managed to retain the professionalism that was once the hallmark of the Australian Public Service, but the rest should be posted to obscure places as trade consuls as soon as possible.

The cosy relationship with fossil fuel lobbyists is no longer in evidence, although eyebrows were raised when Jan Adams, our Ambassador for the Environment, was spotted having a one-on-one lunch and dinner at Sydney Airport with John Daley, head of the Australian Industry Greenhouse Network, aka the greenhouse mafia.

Climate change negotiations are fiendishly complex and it is little wonder that the new Ministers have no idea what they want after ratification. The mix-up over Australia’s apparent endorsement of the 25-40% target recommended by the Ad Hoc Working Group revealed both the tyro status of the Government and the influence of NGOs here.

After the scientists, the NGOs have always set the agenda at international negotiations. They made the Howard Government appear evil at every step of the way. The new Government must understand that the environment groups (both national and international) will determine how the Rudd Government is seen by the Australian public. It must be vigilant that the goodwill is not frittered away.

That means talking to the enviros. Yet the DFAT officials continue to treat the NGOs with contempt. Penny Wong needs to tell them that the enviros are now the friends of the Government, not its sworn enemies, and she had better do it fast.

In the early months, as the new government works out its position on post-Kyoto negotiations, there is a real danger that it will be captured by the DFAT worldview, the one that has done so much damage in the past.

The relevant ministers must seek alternative sources of advice, and should be looking to appoint staff members who know how things work and are not lightweights.

While the Australian officials basked in the warmth of the applause last week, their performance was business-as-usual. This has had delegates from the rest of the world wondering what has really changed. The Australian position looks increasingly like Canada’s, and there is a risk that they may become the Clayton’s ratifiers — the ratification you do when you are not really ratifying.

What happens this week in Bali will indelibly stamp perceptions of the Rudd Government’s position on climate change both internationally and at home. If things sour it will take years to make up for it.