The full results from the November 24 federal election are in — and they show something interesting.
The Coalition ended up with 47.44% of the two party preferred voted. Despite the impression on the night of a strong Labor win, Kevin Rudd was only elected with a margin just over 1.5%.
That’s the smallest swing for a change of government since World War II, going by Mr Mumble’s table.
The Coalition clawed its position back “after strongly outpolling Labor in the record 2.5 million postal, pre-poll and absentee votes counted after election night”, according to Tim Colebatch’s analysis in The Age.
The conventional wisdom has said that the Coalition does better from these vote as they come from older, more conservative electors stuck at home or the more affluent.
That, however, is challenged. It’s a little out of date to assume that only Liberal voters can afford to take interstate holidays that require them to cast postal votes.
So how do we explain the high Coalition postal, pre-poll and absentee vote?
The influence of elderly voters was certainly felt there. It’s easier for many oldsters – and their carers – if they cast a postal or pre-poll vote. This demographic favours the conservative parties.
But all the major parties chase postal, pre-polls and absentee voters. Virtually every household would have received postal vote applications from both the Liberals and the ALP in the first few days of the campaign.
There’s usually strong competition between the majors to see who can get theirs in the mail first. They hope the applicant will follow their how to vote.
The Coalition had the advantage of incumbency at the November 24 poll – more MPs with more electorate databases and more postal allowance to spend.
Did this help them win more postal, pre-poll and absentee votes, or does the conventional wisdom still apply?
20% of the votes were not cast at the regular “home booth”. Why don’t we extend this trend and allow us to caste a vote from our own homes. Think of the cost savings. If it is good enough for the tax office and for the census why not for voting.
My guess – the out of towners weren’t audience to the successfully emotional ALP media campaign, nor were around the Kevin 07 “buzz” … so they voted a little more dispassionately. A big generalization of course.
“The Coalition ended up with 47.44% of the two party preferred voted. ……Kevin Rudd was only elected with a margin just over 1.5%.” Hate to question your maths Christain, but isn’t the margin 2.56% which may change the rest of your little article?
Ken B is right of course, and the swing was 5.3%. A more substantive point is the huge importance of Green preferences to Labor’s win. Kevin owes the Greens big time!
Postal votes would have been done well before the “fake muslim letter” fiasco as well, could have had a significant effect in my opinion.