So after a weekend of furious speculation in the News Ltd papers about Nelson’s leadership, we are left … where?
Not really anywhere different to where we were last week, or last month, or even at the start of the year, except in one crucial regard.
Nelson has been under the hammer from the get-go. The media, to generalise outrageously, didn’t like that he managed to block what they saw as the inevitable ascension of Malcolm Turnbull. And Nelson’s style didn’t help him. Consultative, earnest and overly personal are all qualities easily mocked (and we happily mocked them). So from early on, the media, doubtless egged on by some of the more enthusiastic Malcolmtents, have been setting up tests for him. The apology. The Budget reply. The inevitable by-elections as former Ministers drifted away. You get the feeling even if Nelson passed them all with flying colours they’d keep inventing them until he tripped.
Nothing has changed, even as the chagrin at the defeat of Turnbull has been replaced by the realisation that Nelson really is a dud, one of Downeresque proportions. But Nelson isn’t about to be replaced. No challenge is imminent. He still has to face the Budget and the by-elections. If he’s a Weekend at Brendan’s-style corpse, he’s being supported on one side by the desire that he get a fair go, and on the other by the need to let him, rather than a new leader, absorb all the punishment Labor is currently dishing out.
But as usual when it comes to leadership speculation, the media acts as a perfect echo chamber, amplifying even the tiniest whisper into headline stuff. Some of it is simply frustration at being in Opposition. “Everyone’s still hurting,” said one former minister. “I know I am.” And no one was putting their name to anything, although there were plenty of people apparently willing to dob in a holidaying Tony Abbott. But even Andrew Robb’s purported gaffe about no one listening to the Liberals isn’t news. Who listens to Oppositions four months after a change of government?
But what has changed is that the Liberals are starting to worry about the impact of Nelson on the party’s base. A senior Liberal told Crikey that this was the key issue. It’s been clear for some time, they said, that Nelson’s demise was a matter of when, not if. But his lack of appeal is starting to bleed into the base, and this is where it gets serious, even years away from an election. It’s not just the Liberals’ core support that could be affected, but their membership – already falling and greying – and their ability to raise funds, already under threat from the Government’s electoral disclosure changes, and whatever else comes down the pike after Faulkner’s Green Paper.
Nelson’s performance may be starting to affect the party’s long-term viability, and that won’t be tolerated, regardless of when the Budget or the by-elections are. When Nelson’s end comes, it may not be for any public reason, but because too many MPs have realised the party itself is in danger of irreparable damage.
After their latest Party pow-wow I swear I heard one of them say to another-in a news shot on the ABC- “That’s the problem, they (the voter) doesn’t think about us”. This struck me as being, for once, as fundamental, inalienable and totally accurate truth coming from a member of the Party from which the unlamented John Howard, had purged all vestiges of truth.
“John Howard and the Collapse of Political Morality”. Sounds like a promising title for a book.
John James,
A bit of a ‘typo’ there in the 2nd last sentence…it should read:
‘Howard is still very highly regarded as a LYING RODENT within the general Australian community.’
I don’t actually mind Nelson, but theres no way I would vote for Turnbull
err that was Stiglitz former White House economics adviser to Clinton re US$3 TRILLION war in Iraq, not billion.
John James, as usual I disagree with several of your points. Abbott showed what a dud he is during the campaign. He cost serious votes when he swore at Nicola Roxon during his ludicrous debate performance. Howard talked the tory talk, but his big government tax-and-bribe dog whistling style was hardly actual conservatism. He will best be remembered for not stuffing things up too badly, which is what Australians generally hope for in their politicians, but he’ll also be remembered as a lying rodent whose appearances in the media often resembled an Uncle Arthur sketch. You are right that politicians do their best work after their policy position has been ‘forged in fires of failure’. Hawke and Keating’s legacy was their economic reforms, forged post-1975. Howard’s ‘Lazarus’ performance was forged in opposition. History suggests Nelson won’t get there but Turnbull or Hockey might. They’ll need their party to rebuild its relationship with the broader community first, though.