The Democratic Party has made its biggest mistake since… well, the last presidential election. Worse than that, really. Barack Obama is a disaster of McGovernesque proportions, and his nomination will give the McCain camp confidence that what should have been an unwinnable election will be within reach.
Let’s be clear. Obama is the weakest, least substantial candidate from either side for a generation or more. At least Michael Dukakis had run Massachusetts. Obama hasn’t run anything, has been in the Senate for five minutes, and has an undistinguished record in Illinois.
All he’s got are words – eloquent, uplifting, energising and wholly vacuous words. And nothing else. Particularly, no experience.
The likes of Hu Jintao, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Vladimir Putin must be rubbing their hands with glee at the notion of dealing with a United States presided over by such a foreign policy toddler like Obama. The absurd comparisons with Kennedy (usually JFK, but if it’s a floundering Hillary Clinton, maybe RFK as well) miss the critical point that Kennedy viewed the presidency through the prism of foreign policy, in which he had substantial expertise. Kennedy knew enough about foreign policy that he was his own Secretary of State, with Dean Rusk running State. The notion of Obama doing the same is frightening.
That’s assuming he ever gets there. The Republican political machine is the most vicious on the planet (amongst those that don’t kill people, that is). Courtesy of the Democratic primaries, it has a wealth of material on Obama. Clinton’s attack ads, while providing a useful playbook, will look innocuous once the Republicans fire up. And there’ll be no rising above this sh-t fight with plaintive pleas for “a new kind of politics” for Obama. The old politics still works very well.
Worse, in John McCain he’s up against about the only Republican with sufficient product differentiation from the Bush Administration to be competitive. There was a telling comment about McCain back in 2000 when he was battling Bush: “he’s what presidents used to be like”. The war hero thing, the maverick reputation, even his age, tap into the sort of president that exists only in movies, but which McCain may be able to channel.
Obama’s only hope is to get Clinton onto the ticket. A solid core of Clinton supporters have consistently said they won’t vote for Obama. A lot of that will be resentment at Clinton’s (grotesquely unfair) treatment at the hands of the press compared to the golden ride Obama has had, and will vanish once the battle is joined. But Obama already has too many major constituencies who have consistently demonstrated they won’t vote for him – lower income workers, Hispanics – to afford to alienate core Democrats who not merely vote but help organise and get out the vote and, crucially, donate.
It might stick in the craw, his supporters might loathe the idea, but bringing Clinton on board will be the smartest thing Obama will do all year.
Let’s not also forget that despite all their foreign policy experience, both Clinton and McCain got it wrong on Iraq. Obama didn’t. I’ll take good judgement over experience any day.
Here are his 2002 quotes on the Iraq war on WikiQuote
http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Barack_Obama#2002
Bernard, you’re being a bit rough; BO is much more likely to bring the US back to some degree of respectability on the world stage than the likes of the incumbent (who still has 5 months in which to make recovery impossible; it’s within his capacity). If the US survived Reagan and does survive GWB, BO is hardly a disaster in the making by comparison!
What a ridiculous column. Obama has fought off an aggressive Clinton machine to win from nowhere, garnering unprecedented turnouts and breaking all fundraising records, and Keane acts like he has just stumbled into victory. Whatever he thinks, Clinton’s capacity to inspire is extremely limited – she’s a dynastic candidate, who is tainted by her support of the war, and her association with the DLC wing of the party – who try to win by laying down Misère focusing on swing states, and positioning the party in a way that enables and boosts the talking points of Republicans. We can see this destructive tendency looking at the way she has run her campaign, and the way Ford, the new DLC leader, was positively gushing in response to McCain’s recent speech. I’m sorry, but the future of the party is clearly with the Dean-Obama wing, who’re at least prepare to fight in 50 states with good candidates – putting the Democrats on the front foot. If Keane is so worried about the capacity of Republicans to frame elections he should stop accepting and amplifying their frames – as only then will the Dems be able to shake the perception of the uninformed that they don’t have the same fire in the belly as Republicans.
As for this experience furph, Keane can mock Obama’s short stay in the Senate all he likes, but he hasn’t even done basic research into his accomplishments. Obama has sponsored legislation on arms control, proliferation, campaign finance reform, and has been active on the Foreign Relations Committee -which is pretty decent record for a junior senator. He also has a background at Harvard Law school – where he achieved distinction by being the first black editor of their prestigious Law Review – and as a Constitutional law lecturer. That might not mean anything to Keane, but it is impressive to anyone who knows about the demanding realities of ivy league achievement.
Foreign policy toddler? Come one, that’s just childish rhetoric. What evidence does Keane have for such a statement? Seems Keane hasn’t done any research into any of the candidates actual foreign policy views, which are available in respectable periodicals such as Foreign Affairs, or likewise thee views of their core advisers, but has simply allowed the talking points of Fox News and the relative gloss favoured by Obama in his speeches (which are purposely not wonkish or policy based) to shape his perception about their experience. Even a quick look at Obama’s foreign policy team shows they have rich experience, and that his views are hardly lightweight. Keane thinks he knows better than Zbigniew Brzezinski, who fully backs Obama, what a substantial foreign policy looks like? Get real! Obama’s policy is certainly better than McCain’s which promise to simply continue the Bush legacy.
Also sad to see Keane buying into the McCain myth that he’s really got substantial differentiation from Bush. Fact is, this difference is grossly exaggerated by the press who are basically in love with the crotchety candidate. Some writers above suggest that Obama has gotten a free pass by the press, but what about McCain? He’s frequently mistaken Sunni and Shia, and other parties on the ground in Iraq, and repeatedly gotten basic facts wrong in a Bush-like disingenuous manner, like when he tried suggest Iran was training al Qaeda, and the press, probably out of baby boomer guilt syndrome, simply refuse to ask any tough questions about these serious matters. FFS, Obama received a 90 minute grilling in one of the Dem debates about wearing a f-in flag pin, and they won’t touch McCain when he tries to ratchet up the case against Iran based on false information. On all the key issues apart from immigration, McCain reputation as a principled objector to the Bush platform is basically a fiction. From warrantless wiretapping, to even torture, McCain has not disabled the Bush, or his expansive view of presidential power. McCain get false credit for being a maverick and Keane and bought the myth.
OK I will say it … remember affirmative action / Geraldine Ferraro / The Black Price ‘Bama / Geraldine has been pilloried for saying that ‘Bama would not be where he is if he were not black – hard to argue either as he is black and she is a woman … and the point is? Well if the Presidency of the United States requires as a prerequisite being the member of a minority (women and blacks) with little practical experience or demonstrating good judgement … Whitewater, Bubba and the Rev and Ayres, then either Hillary or ‘Bama is the right person for the job. Mind you the Bib Mac is also a member of a minority (the elderly) so I guess he too qualifies. But don’t worry … we have on our side the rest of the western team; Brown, Sarkozy, Berlusconi, Kev suiting up against Chavez, Wheresmedinnerjacket, Putin, Kimbo of the North and that guy from NPRC. In the words of that great modern day philosopher, Alfred E Newman ‘what me worry”? Hell yes …. dogs and razor blades come to mind. Where is L Ron when you need him?
Will “brother of Bobba” Fettes: my tip is McCain in a landslide, while Democrats strengthen their grip on both Houses. I reserve the right to adjust that prediction once, and once only, before the election. But a lot earlier than 3 November.
Willing to run naked through Crikey HQ if I’m wrong.