One of the fascinating lessons from the Garnaut Report, regardless of its content, is that the psychology of it worked. The States and, eventually, Federal Labor commissioned an eminent economist to more or less repeat the Stern Report experience in Australia. That is, get a heavy hitter, someone with profile, who can’t be dismissed as any sort of raving leftie, and get them to do a thorough job on the need to address climate change.
Stern, internationally, and then Garnaut here, changed the way the climate change game was played. No longer was it environmentalists – easily derided as kooks and anti-development types – saying we needed to act quickly to halt global warming, it was Establishment figures, sober economists who had adopted a cautious, even overly-conservative, approach to the issue and still decided that we were in very deep trouble. Garnaut, like Stern before him, had to be taken seriously by the media and he could not be dismissed by the Government – especially as it had commissioned him.
A month later, and all that has been blown away by the financial crisis. Suddenly we’re back talking economic growth, unemployment and recession, not the consequences for economic growth of unchecked climate change and the net economic benefits of addressing it.
Even before we went into full-scale meltdown mode, however, the same thing was being played out at a lower level. Many businesses and their representatives had engaged in the time-honoured rentseeker method of hiring “independent” consultants to commission reports, not even worth the electrons they were emailed on, purporting to demonstrate why they should be exempted from the responsibility of contributing to carbon abatement measures.
The media, lacking the expertise or interest to unpack this rubbish and describe its many flaws, echoed the self-serving contents of the reports – or in the case of some News Ltd journalists, actively spruiked them. Only more sceptical commentators like Ross Gittins were prepared to spend the time necessary for demolishing this stuff.
It’s time for the environmental movement to get its act together and develop a serious economic capability that can deal with this sort of thing and provide an ongoing, informed economic perspective on the costs of climate change inaction. On issues like industry assistance and productivity-related reform, the Productivity Commission provides a powerful opponent of rentseeking and special pleading, deploying the heavy artillery of modelling and econometric analysis in response to the claims of special interests. No industry groups can match it and the Government, when it wants to avoid the implications of the PC’s rigour, has to establish parallel review processes.
There’s nothing similar available on climate change and environmental economics. Indeed, the Government fully funds an economic modelling unit – ABARE – pretty much devoted to undermining attempts to address climate change and protect the environment.
This idea isn’t new. At least one green group has tried to recruit economists but found it difficult to attract talent. It’s been a pretty tight labour market and econometrics is a highly-prized skillset. That, one suspects, will change now, and there might be more than a few refugees from the banking industry that might be able to redeem themselves crunching the numbers on GDP impacts of an ETS.
Nor should such a unit be above some of the tricks of the consultants-for-hire used by industry. For example, Garnaut very conservatively estimates unchecked climate change will cost nearly 7.5% of GNP by 2100. What’s that for every man, woman and child?
Use a generous discount rate to maintain credibility, but let’s have a dollar figure of the type that greenhouse sceptics love to bandy around when discussing the costs of taking action. The media swallow those without cavil – no reason why they shouldn’t be given the same treatment from the other side, or subject both sides to the same sort of scepticism, which would be far better.
Action on climate change is in serious danger of being swamped by bad news. Environmentalist groups are going to have to get their hands dirty with economics and start trying to shape the debate in the dollars and cents terms that the media love best.
Why we should take much notice of economists is beyond me. Surely by now there is no one who takes what they say seriously. Why not hire some people who know about modelling dynamic systems – like the people who study the environment.
Economists base their models on the theory of general equilibrium which is based on a late 1800’s view of economic systems as systems in equilibrium – like planets going around the sun.
Obviously such modelling is going to be wrong. Economic theory only works when there are no disruptive changes. They have no idea on how to model the current financial turmoil because the system is in a “chaotic state”. I have yet to see an economic model that can explain the past let alone predict the future.
Do not look to economists to solve the problem. They even have this bizarre idea that increasing the price of energy from fossil fuels will somehow lead to investment in renewables. Anyone with half a brain can tell you that it will lead to more energy from fossil fuel because there is more profit in burning fossil fuel because the prices are higher and someone is going to collect that extra profit and little will go to investing in renewables.
Renewable energy is an investment problem NOT a pricing problem. Cut the price of investment (namely the interest rate charged on money invested in renewables) and you can have as much renewable energy as you need for no increase in the price of energy. Do not give me any nonsense that this is inflationary or that it is diverting resources from more profitable uses of the money. We know we have to invest in renewables and we know that if you spend money that produces more money than you spend it cannot be inflationary.
Another gee-up for the climate-change-caused-by-human-behaviour lobby. Crikey, I thought you’d be doing some real investigative reporting, instead of being a PC patsy.
How about some meaningful questions like:
1. If the financial experts could have been so wrong for so long, why should we believe the self-appointed climate experts – especially as so many world-renowned scientists disagree with their interpretation of the data.
2. Why is Antarctic ice increasing?
3. Why are we paying over $1.50 per litre for petrol when the price is down to $75 a barrel?
Oh, of course – we should feel good about being gouged on petrol prices if we are good environmental citizens.
…And the oil companies continue to fund the climate change propaganda as they laugh all the way to the bank.
The bank? Oh yes, they just received lots of government (our) money.
Crikey, get it together!
Bernard – enviro groups (and pundits) need to talk dollars and sense.
There appears to be another strand of thought(?) by the neo, neo-cons, emerging from the woodwork. Namely,
the usual flat denial that Climate Change exists. Followed by the “Oh well, by the time the economic crisis is over, there will be less pollution anyway!” Yet, were the people who are concerned for the environment to argue, “It is man made, but nature is responsible,” they would be crucified. But it seems the neo, neo-cons can get away with it. Why? It is laughable that these pre-Darwinian (pre-Cambrian?) thought-mongers can get away with such false premises. Go for it Andrew Bolt, and PeterT, you are doing yourselves proud. And you’re reducing the planet to destruction.
Glad to learn that you are an anti-protectionist Mr Keane, but are you half-way numerate? You say “Garnaut very conservatively estimates unchecked climate change will cost nearly 7.5% of GNP by 2100. What’s that for every man, woman and child? ” Not only is 7.5 per cent lower than the sort of losses you can get in 10 years (rather than 92) from the kind of economic mismanagement that has afflicted Japan, Argentina and a lot of more and less likely candidates in recent decades, it is a minute, hardly noticeable, fraction of the increase in GDP that our descendants will enjoy in 2100. Just do some compounding sums at a meagre 1 or 2 per cent. Moreover, it would take a very modest investment now and for a few years to come by way of additional saving and investment to make us prosperous in future to overtake that 7.5%. It follows that almost any diversion of our wealth by making investment decisions which are not a result of business judgment as to what is most profitable but a result of government mandated costs involved in reducing Carbon Pollution (sic!) must make us poorer than we would otherwise be and less able to pay for the mitigation measures which might be needed if global warming caused the problems some predict.