Rio Tinto topped the roll call of companies hacking into their work forces, capital spending and hopefully debt overnight with the 14,000 chop in jobs, but at least two global majors are facing the possibility of collapse.
Nortel Networks, the big loss making Canadian based telecoms equipment group is now on analysts’ death watch after it confirmed that it had sought legal advice on a possible bankruptcy protection filing should its latest restructuring plan fail.
The shares fell 20% to C$0.51 on the Toronto Stock Exchange in spite of the Canadian company saying that “no bankruptcy court filing is imminent”.
At that price the company, once Canada’s largest, is valued at $US194 million, compared with about $US250 billion at the peak of the telecoms and internet boom in 2000. But GMAC, the big US car and property financier, is moving closer to collapse after a failing to raise the capital needed to switch to being a bank(it is withdrawing from the Australian car market at the end of this month).
The company is 49% owned by general Motors and 51% owned by Cerberus, the private equity group which controls Chrysler, which is one of the three US car companies with their hands out to the US Congress looking for aid. GM and Chrysler are the ones most in need and the horse trading over some $US15 billion in short term loans is continuing (Ford would like a loan, but not at this time).
GMAC is seeking to become a bank so it can access the US government’s $US700 billion bailout fund. But to become a bank, it has been told by regulators it needs a minimum of $US30 billion in capital to get Federal Reserve approval.
The problems at GMAC casting doubt on its ability to survive the financial crisis have suddenly emerged after a bid to raise more capital looks like failing. If that happens, collapse could come within the next few weeks.
GMAC says that efforts to raise the necessary capital through a $US38 billion debt exchange have been unsuccessful so far, but it is leaving the plan open until this Friday to see if more debt holders decide to participate in the plan. It is hoping that the threat of bankruptcy and certain losses will force more bondholders to support the deal.
GMAC launched its exchange last month, offering bondholders as little as 55 US cents on the dollar to exchange notes issued by the company and Residential Capital, its financially crippled mortgage lending unit. GMAC said it needed 75 per cent participation in its offer to meet the capital requirements for a banking charter. Just 22% of GMAC note holders and 21% of ResCap notes had been tendered for the exchange.
If it can’t raise the funds by Friday it will withdraw its application for a bank licence, leaving its future uncertain because of a drying up of funding. US analysts say that if this happens, bankruptcy beckons.
Kodak, the big photography group, has joined the swelling ranks of US companies withdrawing their earnings forecasts, freezing salaries and looking at more cost cuts.
General Electric, 3M, Intel, Texas Instruments, Dow, Chemical Du Pont, Nat Semi, AMD and a host of media companies in newspapers, TV and radio are just some groups to have cut or abandoned profit forecasts and starting cost-cutting drives.
Kodak cited the deepening global recession and the stronger US dollar as reasons why world-wide consumer sales are down. It said second-half and full-year 2008 guidance for revenue growth, digital revenue growth, earnings from continuing operations and cash generation would fall short of the statements made in October estimates.” There is an unprecedented amount of uncertainty surrounding the economic environment and most signs indicate that we may be facing a prolonged global recession,” said Antonio M. Perez, chairman and chief executive.
Kodak’s announcement on Wednesday marks the second time in six weeks that it cut its forecast.
And in Europe, SKF, the Swedish bearings giant, has been caught by plunging demand from the car industry (like Philips has for deadlights and chips) and will cut 2,500 jobs or 6% of its global workforce.
The Swedish engineering company says 4th quarter sales will be down 15% year on year, a sharp deterioration from the previous quarter in which it increased sales by 9%. Sales in its auto division could be off 30%.
Like computer chipmakers which are bellwethers for consumer and allied products like mobile phones, laptops etc, SKF’s business and order book is a similar sort of early warning system for engineering industries across the globe. Cars, heavy equipment, planes, etc — any type of capital goods that need bearings — are being impacted as businesses slash output in response to plunging demand.
Steel and metal processing companies are slashing output because demand is falling: much of the steel and other products they make is taken by users to convert into capital goods, which in turn need bearings and computer chips, software and similar gizmos. The chip order levels from heavy industry seem to be matching the experience of SKF.
So it’s no wonder Rio Tinto finally got out the axe yesterday. BHP Billiton can’t stand in the face of this pressure from users and avoid similar cuts. But BHP doesn’t have the debt burden of Rio.
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