Odd how three separate Australian media companies have settled on the figure of 80% as the size of the cuts in their dividends or distributions to long suffering shareholders.
Fairfax Media of course kicked it off a week or two ago: it cut interim payout 80% and punted the CEO, David Kirk. The Ten Network yesterday cut interim dividend 80%. The part-time executive chairman, Nick Falloon is still there, but the head of TV, Grant Blackley missed the meeting.
At the owner of Ten’s regional affiliate, Macquarie Media Group, the interim distribution was cut 80% to just 4.5 cents a share: was word passed on from Ten that that was the figure? Macquarie Media of course is now notorious for claiming earlier in the year that the slump in advertising hadn’t hit rural Australia where it operates: it has now.
Ten dropped earnings on a 10.6% fall in revenue in the three months to November. That quarter should have included some spending in November ahead of Christmas. But a year ago the network were boosted by the election campaign, a more buoyant economy (especially cars, banks and airlines) and that extra minute an hour in prime time to allow for the election advertising. That missing minute this year is having a big impact on the networks, including SBS.
That was the first quarter of the 2009 financial year for Ten; this quarter and then the May quarter will be tough for the network and it will run at a loss some weeks. Ten has already chopped staff and programs at its TV business and the Eye outdoor advertising arm in Australia and the US and Asia. Some in TV are asking: of the three senior executives: Nick Falloon, Grant Blackley and the TV network programming director, David Mott, who won’t be here this time in 2009?
We are now waiting to see what the likes of Macquarie Radio do with their payouts: it has already chopped heavily at 2GB in Sydney and downgraded earnings; APN News and Media is next: its major shareholder (Tony O’Reilly) is trying to find a buyer for the 39% it owns. There aren’t many about.
The Seven Network has already warned first half earnings will be down 50%: can Kerry Stokes afford to pay himself and the rest of the shareholders the interim of 17 cents a share? An 80% cut brings that back to just 3.4 cents a share. Ouches all round!
Stokes though snatched control of West Australian Newspapers and is now stalking Consolidated Media Holdings. The appeal in the C7 case is tied to those ambitions, as is the slowly moving exit of News Ltd from Rugby League and the revamp of the sport’s governing bodies. Stokes wants the stakes in Foxtel and if he can get it, Fox Sports. He will settle for Foxtel.
In the US news that the cost cuts News Corp won’t talk about, are well and truly underway at Fox TV. Up to 20 shows will be affected by the 2% budget cuts, “The move is part of a wider cost-cutting initiative at News Corp’s Fox properties, from TV stations and the film studio to MySpace, as advertising revenue has fallen across all media. The company has been cutting travel and entertainment budgets and leaving vacant jobs unfilled.”
Strange isn’t it how News Corp papers play up cost cuts and sackings at Fairfax Media, in Rio Tinto and other miners and at banks like Citibank and ANZ, but it won’t release or provide any hard or fast figures and updates for itself. It sounds like the old Russian Communist system where there were authorised hit men who just plugged away removing people in a room at the back at party HQ. And the only way we knew who had been ‘retrenched’ was when the next set of official photos or functions happened to be made public and they were not in shot!
In London the BBC is fighting attempts to use its very successful Worldwide production business to subsidise or bailout the ailing Channel 4. Channel 4 might also be merged into the RTL owned Channel Five, but that’s a last option before a direct Government grant.
The BBC is on the nose with many in the UK over foul-mouthed radio hosts abusing people, audience and vote rigging in phone competitions and paying radio and TV stars huge salaries at a time when it, a state owned broadcaster, is sacking 4,000 workers over the next year or two. Now the bail Channel 4 out by stripping BBC Worldwide from the Beeb is well underway. The irony is that many of those calling for the deal want to see the biggest independent TV producers in the US broken up and supplanted by the likes of Endermol, Fremantle (whose parent owns Channel 5), Granada (owned by the ailing ITV) and some US producers and their UK mates.
And speaking of producers, the chances of Fairfax getting a good price for Southern Star’s remaining businesses are receding: Endemol is the most logical buyer left: Fremantle can’t buy because Seven doesn’t want them to get too big; the BBC has looked and said ‘no’ and management can’t get the finance.
The problem with Endemol is that its funder is Goldman Sachs, which has a lot of money exposed to some staggering media groups around the world, such as CanWest Global in Canada (and through them Ten here); the Independent news & media Group (along with the ANZ), and of course PBL Media which has just been bailed out, with Goldman’s finally coming to the deal on Monday of this week to roll its mezzanine debt of more than half a billion. Does Goldman and its private equity arm really have $A100 million for a struggling Australian production house?
And back to the BBC there’s talk its relations with ACP Magazines and SBS over the successful Top Gear program might be a bit strained due to some sponsorships and editing of the magazine. It’s not terminal, but enough to make the Poms go ballistic for a while.
ACP Magazines is looking at merging Cleo and Cosmo next year, but can’t work out what to do with struggling Dolly. Two cars titles will be merged: Wheels and Modern Motor are the most logical because the Top Gear magazine is eating sales of the two established ACP titles. The men’s titles like FHM and Ralph will be merged if they lose any more circulations. People and Picture as well and Zoo are also candidates. That’s why the 2008 and December quarter audit figures in February of 2009, will be watched like a hawk. And if Woman’s Day and Australian Women’s Weekly lose another 5-10% of sales in the December quarter, pressure will be on to rationalise them further.
Sports sponsorships here and in Europe and the US will be a major worry for the sports and the TV networks. The England cricket team is losing Vodafone, which is cutting costs globally. Will Rugby Union here and in the US be far behind. Ford is leaving Rugby Union here, will it also exit cricket?
In the US car companies have not only slashed all advertising but their huge support of the NASCAR oval racing series has been cut right back with an estimated $US300 million in support trimmed from the sport and from competing teams. Seeing NASCAR gets an estimated $US1.5 billion in total sponsorship, some big, big cuts are coming. races will probably go and the struggling TV and cable networks won’t be able to make up the difference.
As of last weekend some 10 of the ad 67 spots in next February’s NFL Super Bowl were vacant. And no wonder; the rate for the 30 second spots was put up to $US3 million from $2.5 million last year. General Motors isn’t advertising, it had most of those 10 spots last year. GM has also cancelled its deal with Tiger Woods and dropped the sponsorship of the Us masters golf tournament next April. Honda has of course dropped out of Formula 1 racing, US football, baseball and basketball teams have cut staff and many cities are losing sponsors of expensive new stadiums (Wachovia Bank and Washington Mutual Bank were big sponsors of stadia in the US). here two NBL basket ball teams have gone bust and several NRL teams are close to the edge.
And the NRL and AFL still reckon they will get increases on current sponsorship and TV broadcast deals for their sports. It won’t surprise that in late 2009 one or both of the codes do some sort of extension with the existing sponsors or broadcasters merely to give them both more time to see the economy improve past 2010-2011 when both contracts have to be finalised.
The only media company which can cut its dividend without anyone noticing is News Corp.
Even in good times, the dividend is appalling.