Let’s imagine a world where utopia has arrived, where the most complex of problems can be solved by the most simple of actions — where we have change we can … well, you know the spiel.
No, I’m not talking about Barack Obama like everyone else is today, but a world where we flog NSW off to the Kiwis for some nice cheeses and a couple of rugby players.
When we cast our eye across the national economic data, the one thing that really stands out is the absolutely appalling performance of NSW on nearly every metric you care to look at. From retail turnover to building approvals, from unemployment to capital expenditure — NSW is behaving like another country.
To put this in perspective, if we look at those four measures and track not only the NSW performance against the broader Australian performance, but also against the performance of Australia without NSW included in the figures — our hypothetical utopia — the enormity of the economic drag that NSW is inflicting on the wider Australian economy should give us pause for thought.
The usual caveats apply here — we can’t actually disconnect the NSW economy from the national economy, nor would the Kiwis probably want to barter for it to begin with. But the point that the charts really highlight is how strong our economy would actually be if NSW merely became average. Not a powerhouse, but just something approaching barely average.
There are some reasonably good excuses for part of the NSW performance — the nature of their industrial portfolio compared to other states being one, where a number of sectors like finance that are caught in the broader global maelstrom, have a larger than average presence in NSW. The depth and breadth of their housing boom and the resultant hangover it’s created (especially on the consumer demand front, not to mention its sheer opportunity cost) is another issue that needs to be thrown into the mix.
Yet other States, most notably Victoria, have faced similar problems without following NSW into the economic toilet. That begs the question of whether the obvious factors alone can explain the poor performance of NSW, or is the State actually suffering from some broader set of issues that are relatively unique and which aren’t shared by the rest of the country? If that is the case, it also begs two additional questions; what are they, and what can be done about it?
A tired, panicky State government more concerned with rearranging it’s deckchairs than actually growing a pair and pulling their finger out doesn’t help, yet perhaps there is something of a silver lining in that fiasco — the absence of NSW government action may actually be better than the alternative considering its recent history.
We all expect a new stimulus package soon from Rudd — tax cuts, transfer payments, maybe something tailored specifically for the business sector to boot. That’s all good and well — add in a few more rate cuts and the accelerator will be flat to the floor. Yet the size of the drag that NSW is having on the national economy is this great elephant in the room. It’s the relative position of NSW compared to the rest of the country that is creating an enormous problem.
Maybe it’s worth considering a parallel package (or some specific component in any larger stimulus package) that is focused on and tailored to the circumstances of NSW, even if it required the Feds to push around that bunch of hobos currently pretending to run the joint. Especially since any relative increase in the economic performance of NSW would have a significant impact on the broader aggregate position of the national economy — the sheer size of NSW alone guarantees such a thing.
Being a Queenslander, I can’t believe I just said that.
Just a reminder Possum Queensland, that the total population of all of the States in Australia is appx 23 million.
This means that NSW with almost 8million people ( yes check out the 2007 stats and add 1.1% per annum x 18months ) has to support 35% of the Australian population.
Not bad huh, particularly since a couple of billion of our GSt monies goes to support Queensland.
Yes check that out, true story.
So dear Possum Queenslander, when you decide to give NSW the thumbs down, consider where Queensland would be if NSW decided to stop subsidising that State.
This has sparked a million ideas…what about getting an annual report on the state of our states? Handy for people on the move not to mention the healthy rivalry it would promote. We could go further with jumbo screens at airports and borders all flashing the current stats on health, education and infrastructure etc just as Queensland has up there at Tugun. Its jumbotron ticks over on changing population figures. How Bligh collates who came and went is highly debatable but its kind of exciting to watch the calculations go up and down as you sit at the lights in the traffic jam (post by-pass too!). In these tough economic times we need to keep a close eye on which government handles their economies best .
ooooh – you’ve upset the natives this time P 😉
Poss I remain a fan but your rather selective “state of origin” analysis paints a simplistic and misleading picture. Don’t believe everything you read. NSW was hardest hit by high interest rates but also gets the most benefit from rate cuts. In other words first in and first out of recession – your own data is starting to show that (as did December quarter GD which you conveniently omitted). The fallout in finance sector jobs has mostly washed through now – everyone I know who got a package has another gig already. Remember that six months ago everyone was screaming that labour shortages in Sydney were the biggest brake on growth. The state political circus is just a sideshow, mostly of interest to the commentariat who are going in ever decreasing circles to keep it going. The trains still (mostly) run on time and the rest of us are getting on with life in what is still Australia’s and probably the world’s best city.
“Another country” sounds good rhetoric but NSW follows the same trend lines on every measure though lagging. The causes are well known – most globally integrated into the finance sector, not as blessed with the mining boom as WA, QLD, NT, SA. (And I’m grateful we don’t have the world’s biggest uranium mine.)
Then there is Sydney carrying the can for the population/immigration growth at all costs agenda of the federal government in terms of services. But yes I agree meritocracy is a foreign concept in much of State governance. The Tribe is mediocre and regularly dishonest.