The events of the weekend rather put the political shenanigans of last week in their proper context. It seems obscene to focus on politics at a time like this, and if it was business as usual it would be. Dismayingly, there’s another, longer-term national crisis looming that must be addressed as well.
Despite the fierce debate over the stimulus package, however, normal politics has been suspended for the day. There’ll be no Question Time, which has been replaced with condolence motions for the victims of both the fires and floods. Fires and floods. It seems a mockery to write that, but there it is.
The Senate inquiries into the stimulus have also been put on hold for the moment. And the Prime Minister, appropriately, remains in Victoria. He looked this morning like he’d been kicked in the guts, and probably felt exactly that.
The Coalition’s position on the stimulus package seems to have had the anticipated effect on its polling, at least according to Newspoll — the ALP up, the Coalition and Turnbull down. I was inclined to the view that it would be more of a slow burn effect, as voters comprehended the magnitude of the economic crisis unfolding and began to realise that failing to do anything — even if it isn’t enough — is the height of folly. I even wondered for a moment whether I’d missed something obvious that meant two and two didn’t equal four, but instead equalled a wholly different number suggestive of some sort of political brilliance on the part of Malcolm Turnbull. But no. The numbers are similar to the ALP’s position at the end of last year after the late-night Senate debacle, which plenty of people dismissed as a rogue poll. Well, it ain’t a rogue no more.
Not that that has discouraged Dennis Shanahan, who boldly declared on Saturday that Turnbull had wrongfooted Rudd with his opposition. Shanahan’s right, in the sense that if your opponent insists on inflicting grievous damage on themselves of their own volition, then you might wonder what on earth is going on. But quite what advantage it affords the Coalition isn’t clear. Rudd would be happy to have two left feet if wrongfooting earned such polling numbers. Shanahan persisted today, declaring Turnbull satisfied with having correctly predicted a battering (genius!) and claiming to divine “undercurrents of doubt” about the Government’s proposed debt levels. The “undercurrents” turned out to be among Liberal voters and the elderly — ie rusted-on conservatives. You’d think they’d have tsunamis of doubt about a Labor spendathon, but what do I know.
Moreover, Shanahan said, “there is no clear message that most of the $12 billion in giveaways is going to be spent fast.” This was demolished by Newspoll’s own Martin O’Shannessy, who told ABC NewsRadio that the numbers showed most of the people surveyed intending to spend most or all of the handouts. Look out Glenn Milne, there’s a new delusional in town, and he’s packing some heavy-duty pharmaceuticals.
There is some logic, however, to the argument that Turnbull has “energised the base” of his party with his decision. Undoubtedly diehard conservatives, either because they believe no level of public debt is ever justified, or they think government is always the problem, not the solution, or just because, like Warwick McKibbin, they don’t believe there’s a crisis, hate the Government’s stimulus package, and will enthusiastically support Turnbull.
There are some complicating factors, however. Turnbull’s own proposals for a stimulus package aren’t much shy of the same level of debt, again showing just how little difference there is between the major parties on this supposedly vast ideological issue. Moreover, whether it has “energised the base” depends on where you stand. When John Howard did this sort of thing to Labor, it was called “wedging” and hailed as a masterstroke, leaving Labor caught between the natural instincts of its supporters, and political reality. As it happens, Rudd didn’t even try to wedge Turnbull. Turnbull accomplished it all by himself.
Most fundamentally, however, we’re now nearing the middle of the Government’s first term, and the Liberal Party is still trying to fix its base up. This is a bad state to be in at this stage of the electoral cycle. As the disaster of Brendan Nelson’s leadership unfolded last year, Coalition MPs were worrying that he was eroding the party’s base — the people the party relies on for feet on the ground, campaign donkey work and donations. Nearly twelve months on, and Malcolm Turnbull doesn’t seem to be in too dissimilar a position. The party’s polling is just as bad, and its leader is busy focussing on fixing the party base. Unfortunately your base is a necessary but entirely insufficient condition of electoral success.
It hasn’t been a good couple of days for Turnbull. Josh Gordon busted him for having received a $50,000 donation from a US investment bank associated with predatory lending practices. Umberto Eco in Foucault’s Pendulum spins a splendid yarn of some publishers who for their amusement devise their own vast conspiracy theory, only to discover that it’s actually true. In similar fashion, Kevin Rudd, for his own purposes, devised an elaborate explanation for why Malcolm Turnbull is part of the vast neo-liberal conspiracy that has brought the world economy to its knees.
This initially looked nonsensical, but, disconcertingly, Turnbull keeps producing evidence that supports it.
wBernard, you must knowpoliiticians and understand politics well enough to understand what Turnbull is doing. And isn’t it significant that he apparently has the party room behind him. While parliamentary parties, isolated in Canberra, can go mad together (think of the Latham experiment) and there are a lot Liberals too young to know that Keynes was not only a genius but a pragmatist who would have been exactly the right man to have advising them now, they will clearly have seen that Turnbull is taking a cheap wager. No one will remember much in a year’s time about what was said, but it is clear that there will be a lot of people who do not believe that their dire financial condition has been alleviated by anything the government has done. Who is going to be grabbed by the government’;s wasting its media time lambasting the Opposition for opposing the current stimulus package (which will have been enacted anyway)? It will sound as though the government is desperate to counter the Opposition’s charge that the government sshould have followed Oppostiion advice in this, that, and the other way. “The fact remains that under a Liberal government whichhad paid off Labor debt we had 4.1 per cent unemployment and a budget surplus. From the start the government got it wrong. Just as we said the RBA’s cash rate should not go up the government said it should just four months befire a desperate rush to cut rates started….”
Rudd blew his chance to get Turnbull involved in a “War Cabinet” approach and Turnbull is playing a hard and shrewd – though obviously risky – game , to which there is no obvious alternative from a political point of view.
Turnbull’s got all the signs of Liberal pox that victimised his precedessors and sent Costello looking for another gospel. On observation its a fixation with the past however it translates. The old school, well-worn philosophies, game plans and practices from crusty old textbooks whether they work or not dressed up with an air of moral high ground and respectability. And last week as they gathered in the party room I bet the gallery heard the cheer as Turnbull turned to the page and read “blackmail has become respectable”.
The Newspoll figures must be a kick in the guts for Turnbull and the Liberals.
Paul Sheehan’s and Annabel Crabb’s articles in the SMH over the weekend gave me some hope that the electorate were beginning to wake up to Rudd’s chicanery.
I think Australia should be planning an infrastructure spend over 3-4 years with economic development in mind with immediate legislative and practical changes to minimise the difficulties for small business and maximise tax concessions for labour-intensive small business. Across the Tasman, the New Zealand government has brought in a raft of such changes has a cost of less than $500 million.
Ken Henry has made it virtually impossible for Turnbull not to have an “immediate stimulus package” of his own. Henry has already made it clear that this remarkable spend is barely enough! The goals of these short term massive porkbarrelling spends of course is merely to delay Australia entering a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of negative growth). Henry disingenuously made that apparent in his responses to questions from the Senate committee. It is absolutely nothing to do with jobs and everything to do with politics – ‘Rudd’ – or perhaps that should that be- ‘Henry’ – style.
To my eyes this is left wing political insanity clothed in undeserved Department of Treasury respectability. This will cost this generation, and the next, mind-boggling wealth deprivation for very little return.
@Quaility not Quantity
Fact, not Fiction
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/02/07/stimulus-package-composition-tax-vs-infrastructure/
I listened to Mr Shanahan speaking about the PM’s rescue package with Andrew Daddo on ABC 702 last week. At that time I had not realised this bloke had previous editorial form on this topic, but immediately thought this bloke is just a Howard/Turnbull apologist who not surprisingly, still bloody well believe that the Libs (and the always forgetten National Party rump) are the ‘natural’ party to manage the economy.
Can anyone remember back to 1973 when the then Silvertail party ‘leader’ Billy Snedden within 6 months of Labor being elected to govt, was considering blocking the supply bills because in his incredible view, ‘the electorate had changed their mind!’ Don’t start me ………………………………..