People are still dying because they are being told they can defend their houses. In these real bushfires they cannot — regardless of their “fire plans”. The shifting of responsibility for defending property and the decision as to whether to stay or go is an ideological position — one that is killing people.
Bugger the property, lives are at stake. Even now, today, people need to be evacuated in the parts of Victoria still under threat while what is left of the thinly spread screen of exhausted fire fighters saves what properties it can.
There should be now (and should have been) mass evacuations. The now-accepted ethos of individual choice to defend the house or go, individual responsibility to “have your fire plan” is killing people. A guy died holding his hose. He was simply doing what the radio and advice from the authorities told him to do — he made the “choice” — the wrong choice.
And there were way too few practical choices available from impractical people. An elderly couple died in their house when there was a dam within a few feet. Dams saved dozens in the Ash Wednesday fires — why weren’t people told to get into dams as a last resort? The systems of fire and community management we are now subjected to is not based on any examination of the experiences gathered so painfully on Ash Wednesday, 1983 — the systems in play now were developed by government departments and authorities.
In the Commonwealth inquiry into the 2003 fires (Victoria wouldn’t hold one), evidence was given from people whose house caught fire and they sheltered in the lee, the side that was not burning. It saved their lives. The house might have burned but they had shelter for a vital few minutes. These experiences have been ignored. None of this advice is being given yet. People are told to stay in their houses. The house catches fire and then what?
Victorian emergency services commissioner Bruce Esplin this morning defended this individual responsibility angle and came up with the idea of broad scale mobile phone communication for people. This is a sad joke. When the towers are burnt, when batteries are flat after no power for days this will not and cannot work. It is a desperate grab for technological tools that will make living in the bush and defending a home an individual responsibility. He — they — just do not get it. Other bureaucrats almost blamed people who died for making the decision whether to stay or go too late.
People need to be evacuated to safe places before they are under threat — and they need safe local places to go too. They do not need to be encouraged to “stay and defend their homes”. Of course people want to protect their property — but it is grossly irresponsible to encourage them to do in such extreme danger. Houses can be rebuilt — not so burnt bodies. Many people who have only lived in the bush for a few years and had no experience of fire — especially real hot wind driven bush fires that only occur a few times a century — may well want to stay, out of instinct and ignorance. In the past they had no choice. There was a knock on the door — “grab you stuff and go now” was the order from police or CFA.
If people during the Ash Wednesday fires were given the same “stay and defend” choice there would have been many more deaths. Almost everyone fled. If they had stayed to defend properties many more would have died. This crazy policy is the key difference between the past fires and this one.
Still — today — in the face of ongoing fires people are asked to decide whether to stay or go. Go where? This is impossible without safe fire safe place or a safe road — and which safe road with no communications and no time to communicate?
Each town there needs to have a fire shelter. Each town and district needs its own fire alarm with 12 volt power and a bell to set off really bloody loudly to tell people the time has come to get to shelter — shelters in each small town and for every few properties. In conditions like these everyone has to be taken out to safety.
There will be a blame game. Climate change will get a guernsey — though these extreme conditions last occurred in 1983, 26 years and the time before was 1977, only a 16 year interval. Fuel loads in the forest will be blamed too. Much of the shock and confusion generated by this fire comes from the number of fuel reduction fires lit over the last decade — the circus of keeping lightening strikes and other out of control burns going for “fire management purposes”. These fires were bad but not driven by these four times in a century conditions — they were nowhere near as hot.
Real bushfires are way more dangerous.
All very good. But didn’t the fire sweep over the evacuation point of Kinglake?
http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/article/2009/02/08/49445_news.html
Anyone looking to evacuate would have died too.
Deciding to stay and defend comes with a huge responsibility to educate yourself, prepare, stay watchful, and have a place to take refuge as the front passes. This last seems to have been overlooked by many. But you can’t save people from themselves. To hear residents saying they had no fireplan because they didn’t think it would really happen is shocking, but all too common.
If your local primary school is required to have a firestorm-proof shelter for the students (public not admitted), isn’t that a clue that you’re not going to be safe staying at home without a firestorm-proof shelter of your own?
I agree this article is not helpful, and it’s irresponsible of Crikey to leave it here.
I can’t question Lionel Elmore’s qualifications to write about bushfires, but he seems to be under informed on the nature of the advice given by the CFA regarding fire plans and fire behaviour. As a local Community Fireguard Member, I can attest that the key messages from CFA are: 1. have a plan. 2. go early if you choose to go (which does assume you have the necessary warning, and may have been a factor on Saturday). 3. if you stay, ensure you are prepared, in terms of equipment, housekeeping and maintenance. 4. shelter in your house until the fire passes to protect from radiant heat, then go outside when the front has passed. 5 if you stay, be prepared mentally for something awesome and truly intimidating.
This is a more complex message than “go or stay”, but involvement of community members in fireguard groups ensures that neighbours can share there knowledge and experiences, and support each other.
It’s also worth noting that the “stay and defend” approach worked in the Boolara fire in Gippsland on the week prior to the most recent and tragic fires.
Ultimately, the Coroner and the Royal Commission will provide us with answers and guidance, but in the meantime I’m happy to listen to the CFA.
By the way, we have re-appraised our state of preparation and revised our fire plan from “stay and defend”, to “leave early”.
Brumby did the right thing the day before with regards to warning and was widely quoted even in the NSW media as asking people who didn’t need to be in the hills around Melbourne to stay home. Better would have been to say “if you plan to leave this is the day to go and please be gone by 9am”. Obviously it could be put out over text messages etc as well and this should happen. You can’t rely on media radio coverage etc to warn everyone as fires start, these things blow up too quickly. As a volunteer it can also be very confusing getting an accurate picture of a rapidly changing fire situation over the fire services network even with good information and common jargon, mapping skills etc.
The problem is also the sheer number of people as there are probably at least half a million around each of Sydney and Melbourne for the bad days. All the climate science also suggests there will be more of these, perhaps 8-10 per year by 2050. This is a lot of people on the road with kids, pets, treasures etc and where do they go? I think this is why we should be looking at new multipurpose halls constructed to very high standards in each town, within an oval or similar, located centrally to cut down on travel. Human nature means that if we have a lot of these warnings and no big fires people will get complacent and not evacuate. Fits nicely with local economic stimulus too right now.
For this reason a home bunker at each house might be the solution as it will also shelter those who choose to stay and defend. From the pictures we’ve seen and the stories from Greece and California in recent years the last place you want to be is driving around in smoke, with trees falling, moving fires and people panicking. Read the Crikey bunker story also.
The relevant bodies (CSIRO, Bushfire CRC etc) need to get onto a set of standard bunker designs for various sizes and situations and get them built. The bottom line is “stay or go ea
Lionel there is a lot and more to what you say. I wrote the following to the editor re this mornings editorial.
Dear Editor
Your editorial today attempting to get head around the shear severity of the Victorian tragedy in terms of it was an act of God or Climate Change so what can we do about our belief in these and suffer the intended learn for which God or Climate Change bothered with this wroth.
The gruesome tragic loss of life and the awesome quantum of property loss was caused by fire.
This is not new as the length of time multiple government and other authorities have existed to protect the community from harm including severe and tragic harm from fire attests.
The Royal Commission is meant to explore this tragedy to see if all those authorities did that or not which may explain in a more practical sense the severity of loss of life.
After that we can seriously look at our beliefs in God and Climate Change and whether man can do anything to ameliorate their will and what that might be. More praying, reducing consumption etc.
Maybe it will be discovered that more local fire awareness, detailed fire science determinants and behaviour could have let us have that fire if God or Climate Change willed it without any loss of life.
Because Climate change is still coming and God is everywhere at once another fire may come tomorrow and so we need to be safe and clever about fire first.
Dr Harvey M Tarvydas
(psychology, psychology, psychology is everything)
(NB. I killed that other monster ‘Bird Flu’ singlehandedly with science. It was boasting everyday of killing half the worlds population. You haven’t since heard a whisper about it have you?)