The hypocrisy of Malcolm Turnbull, the Opposition parties and some fiscal zealots in arguing against the Rudd government’s fiscal stimulus package is breath-taking. The reason the budget is moving into a deficit now is the direct and unambiguous result of the Howard and Costello government blowing fiscal surpluses in the four or five years up to 2007.
Over that period, the once in 50 year boom in Australia’s terms of trade, the accelerated industrialisation of China and India and the massive growth in capital expenditure saw government revenues surge at an unprecedented rate. But instead of saving the windfall gains as any responsible and prudent economic manager should, Howard and Costello spent or gave away every dollar that was above the unwritten budget surplus target of 1% of GDP.
The Howard and Costello Government, of which Turnbull, Hockey and Bishop were senior ministers, became the biggest spending government in Australia’s history and its reckless approach to fiscal policy was a critical reason why the RBA had to hike interest rates to one of the highest levels in the industrialised world.
Had Howard and Costello accumulated those windfall gains to the Budget rather than cynically trying to buy votes, a few things would now be evident. Notably, interest rates would have been lower. More importantly, today’s government would now be in a position to undertake counter cyclical fiscal policy to support the economy as it plunges towards recession — and it would be able to keep the budget in balance.
Alas, the Rudd government has to deal with the cards it has been dealt. It must run a deficit now — to do otherwise would be dumb. It needs to work to minimise the depths of the recession, to minimise job losses and minimise the human misery that higher unemployment will entail.
There are many lessons to come from this current recession. One is that fiscal policy and the spending and taxing decisions of governments are critical elements of managing the business cycle. When times are prosperous and growth is strong, governments need to reduce deficits, accumulate surpluses and save for a rainy day. Because the rainy day will come. The politics of this is tough, but Howard and Costello didn’t do the Australian economy any favours by spending as much as it did when the economy was clearly over-heating.
Running a budget deficit now when the economy is in recession will help to protect jobs, promote growth and even help householders to build savings and reduce debt. This won’t avoid the recession — the world is too weak and capital expenditure growth in recent years means Australia has a huge amount of spare capacity.
The interesting issue will be what happens when the economic recovery comes. Mr Rudd and his team will get top marks if they use any upswing in the economy to rebuild government savings and return the budget to surplus. On present indications this is where the policy debate should be in 2011 rather than now.
Stephen Koukoulas is the London-based head of global foreign exchange and fixed income strategy for TD Securities.
Far too few people understand economics enough and consequently they see (as Bernard Keane would put it) these issues as competing narratives or they know the ‘truth’ without that understanding.
When mugs don’t know they won’t be found out if the can splash the money around.
What does a real economist like Stephen think when Malcolm laments about the deficits being paid back by his grandchildren and in the next breath promotes tax cuts which would dis-allow him to pay off the deficit (to overcome the financial tsunami that brilliant bankers like him caused without really knowing it) before his grandchildren grew up.
He seems to think human nature is ‘screw me again since you screwed me already’.
The future fund is a hoax though James, it is only supposed to pay the super of public servants and would not have been required if the super had been paid by Howard/Costello in the first place.
It is not about the future for anyone but the snouts in the trough.
Not fair, Stephen. Consider also:
1. having high rates was one reason this country has a banking industry, and citizens that still own things.
2. we have room to move too…. where do you go when you have discounted to 0%?
Marilyn, Howard & Costello organised the tax system, and the super system, so that they’d gain an extra $2 million between them on retirement. They cut the super surcharge to their rich mates that cost us about $2 billion, and Costello introduced more taxes, charges etc in his first few years than any other national govt.
They spent zilch on infrastructure; no thought for future generations, and in so many areas, there’s almost a dangerous legacy. For instance, I heard a discussion on ABC Radio last year, where it was stated, that there’s many bridges in country towns that are about or more than 100 yrs old – that weren’t built for B-Doubles etc or the amount of use and stress placed on them, and are badly in need of repair, strengthening or in many cases should be replaced. Local govts don’t have the necessary funds to meet these costs plus their usual responsibilities. It was predicted, that there could/probably would be some serious accidents in the future. I see a major problem like the road up north during the terrible storms in the Newcastle region – a family lost their lives – 2 parents, 3 children – tragic accident due to alleged cheap ‘fix’ of a busy road!
When you factor in public housing, public transport and public education – all were neglected during the almost 12 yrs of Howard/Costello and those now present on Opposition benches, their audacity is breathtaking. I’m sure there are many other areas that were neglected by the Howard Administration. Why aren’t these facts pushed in the media? (I already know the answer!) The majority of the media will never be guilty of spoiling a good story with the truth!
Yeah, Howard and Costello had literally rivers of gold pouring into the coffers and we don’t have a cent to show for it. Nothing was built, nothing was made, nothing was restructured.
All those who were whining about Rudd’s many reviews should eat crow. The man knew that the books were a total mess after Costello, the world’s laziest treasurer, had them in his hands for nearly 12 years when for 8 of them he hated the job.
Nothing was done with all that money and we Australian’s need to know where the hell it all went.