When yesterday’s unemployment data lobbed mid-morning, online media outlets were set scrambling with the wholly unexpected news that the economy had added nearly 50,000 full-time jobs in April.
Predictably, Julia Gillard shot into action, harnessing the labour force data as evidence that her government’s policies were hitting home.
But as we reported yesterday, there remains enormous scepticism over the ABS’s minuscule 0.24% sample size. The overall trend data was more important, economists said, with leading lights Riki Polygenis and Shane Oliver suggesting “anecdotal evidence” could have more weight than official stats.
Even Gillard was sanguine, later claiming that we shouldn’t get “carried away” with the announcement. Across the board, earlier predictions of an 8% job-less rate by June next year were re-affirmed.
According to Roy Morgan, the non-seasonally adjusted unemployment estimate was actually up 0.1% to 7.1% with the ABS equivalent recording the same gain, up 0.1% to 5.5%.
Here at Crikey we’ve been claiming as much for months, with our SackWatch column documenting the lay-offs at the frontline. Today, in our ninth instalment, we take a detour from the offices of the ABS to the factory floor where the recession continues to wreak havoc:
Check our Sackwatch meta-list for the full jobs fallout since early January.
Ernst & Young: A number of staff were sent home yesterday at lunchtime, with about 40 from the Brisbane office
BT Financial: Westpac wealth management business arm has sacked more than 300 financial advisers over the last six months
Independent contractors: Mark Latham’s “army” of 2 million independent contractors could be struggling for work, and might not be reflected in the official statistics, according to reports
Youth unemployment: 10,000 people aged 15 to 19 are set to join the jobless ranks every month, reports have claimed
Central Coast Sun-Weekly: Fairfax-owned NSW masthead has shut its doors
BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA): 400 workers told to take for a month beginning on from June
Intabill: e-Commerce mogul Daniel Tzvetkoff’s firm has sacked 96 staff and ditched sponsorship of his V8 Supercar team
PriceWaterhouseCoopers: Accounting giant has asked 5000 full-time staff to take up to three weeks of unpaid leave in an attempt to cut costs.
ABS ordered to stop job cuts: 180 jobs lost in March currently the subject of a brawl with the union, with another 60 roles said to be on the chopping block
Nyrstar: Zinc producer has announced it will slash 60 jobs over the next 18 months at its Hobart smelter
Alcoa: Portland aluminum smelter said yesterday said it would curtail production by up to 15 per cent with more that 600 staff employed at the firm
OZ Minerals: Wholesale board and management cuts mooted following asset writedowns
Fonterra: New Zealand-owned dairy group will shed up to 140 jobs when it closes ice-cream-making operations at its West Australian plant
Computer Sciences Australia: Roughly 150 and 170 staff set to be made redundant with a salary freeze in place
Nokia: Phone maker will retrench 450 workers worldwide, although the Australian toll is unknown at this stage
Microsoft: Local headcount to be substantially reduced in line with global plans to lay-off 5,000 workers
Lane Walker Rudkin Sportswear factory: 60 jobs cut after the firm entered receivership
Vision Australia: Not-for-profit group announced it is sacking 130 staff, around 90 of which are in Victoria
Westpac: Big Four bank has already hived off 800 full time equivalent positions with more jobs to go in the second half, despite a solid profit result
UBS: Investment bank to cut around 500 jobs in Australian as the finance industry falls off a cliff
Special WA resources sector wrap:
Genalysis: 80 jobs gone from WA laboratory
Newcrest Mining: 400 at Telfer mine
Mt Gibson Iron: 200 to go
Talisan Minerals: 200 jobs to go
Moly Mines: 70
United Construction: 19
Norilsk Nickel: 150
Oz Minerals: 70
Consolidated Minerals: 133
St Barbara Mines: 45
Panoramic Resources: 60
Nifty Copper Mines: 26
Norilsk Nickel: 330
Windimurra: 200
Kimberley Diamond Company: 36
CSR Monier: 12
Webforge: 2 made redundant
Metso Minerals: 2 being made redundant
Stramit: 8 domestic plus 10 workers on 457 visas
Locker Group: 13
Cayes Engineering: 14
United Group Resources: Going from 100 to 43 and finishing apprentices up early
APAC: 80
AGC: 300
WesTrac: 75
You have a sackwatch but why aren’t you fair and balance that against a hirewatch?
Point of order Andrew,
How can you call the ABS monthly survey miniscule (with a 0.24% of the Australian population as a sample size) and then, in the same breath, quote Roy Morgan Research authoritatively whose April sample was 0.0003% of the Australian population, using a survey methodology not compatible with ILO standards!
It’s worth mentioning that reducing the size of the standard errors here isnt a linear function of the sample size.If we wanted to halve the size of the current standard errors in the ABS Labour Force Survey, we would have to increase the sample from the tad under 50,000 it is now to over 200,000.
Over any arbitrary period of time, would that larger sample size actually make a bunnies fart worth of difference?
Nope – not at all. Insto analysts would still be relying on trend equation projections, and where the difference between having the (currently) smaller sample size results as inputs compared to inputs from sample sizes say, twice as large, would be negligible at best.
The only difference it would make is to those talking head economists trying to fill up their 15 second slots on the 24 hour news cycle, and only then by helping them appear less wrong, less often (although that’s debatable).
The ABS of late is far too often becoming the scape goat for grumpy analysts that have developed a recent history of getting nearly everything totally arse up because of their point black refusal to deal realistically with uncertainty in front of the media.
From retail sales to construction, from GDP growth to labour market dynamics – their recent point estimate hit ratio has been worse than a roulette wheel at a traveling freak show.
The examples listed here cannot be considered anything better than anecdote unless you show equal effort and diligence in reporting all figures related to hiring.
I am not saying that trends represented by your stated figures do not exist. Just remember that your sources may not be representative, and that they may be skewed by upset sackees twittering the latest bloodshed to your desktop, as opposed to those who have succesfully changed or acquired jobs and have not needed to bellow that fact to anyone except their friends and family.
In your article there is no apparent, let alone stated, attempt to mention, let alone research, overall employment statistics. Of course your raw data set and the exact circumstances under which it was collected will be made available on request to the public?
Eternally,
A Skeptic.
Bit of double dipping there, folks.
The ice-cream meltdown in Perth by Fonterra and Peters is one and the same factory shutdown. Fonterra owned the Peters brand (at least in WA).
Thanks Richard. Fixed now.