“Will it be worth turning up tonight?” Alison Carrabine asked Wayne Swan at his Budget doorstop this morning, to audible laughter.
Damn good question, given much, or perhaps most, of the Budget had already been leaked. We can only hope for a few small surprises when Swan rises at 7.30pm. “Beer, cigs up,” hopefully. There is likely to be a big — $2b — clean energy splash, with (yet) more money for CCS and more money for solar, although the figure may be the usual Labor confection of 10% new money, 50% reheated announcements and the rest rephased funding.
The fevered speculation was continuing, however. It was Budget Eve, after all, which, if it no longer has the boom time feel of Christmas Eve, is the biggest night of the year for the governing class and the press. There’s a natural belief that endless debate about the contents of the document to be delivered by Wayne Swan is of interest to voters, although the more sensible reaction might be that they don’t care much and are content to wait 24 hours until the actual announcement.
Bear in mind amid all the speculation and, from 7.30pm, all the coverage, that we’re talking about a bunch of forecasts for what will happen over the next two years. Last year’s forecasts barely got out the door before being mugged by reality. This year may not fare much better. The retail and jobs figures from last week may prove to be not misleading indicators of a brief cash splash spike but harbinger of a shallower, shorter recession than feared and a relaunch of the China boom. Or we could all be going to hell in a handcart courtesy of the next financial sector collapse.
Regardless, everything will be poured over as if some combination of Holy Writ, new toy and dispatches from a far-off battle to see who will make it who won’t, who will get the cash and who won’t — and above all, who’s winning. Which side of politics, which interest group, which industry? This is Major Event politics, with Major Event-style coverage, much of it carefully stage-managed by Australia’s most image-conscious government.
“everything will be poured over”? I know journalists have a reputation, but I thought they were more careful with their drinks than that.
“Beer, cigs up.” No worries.
“Beer, cigs, lattes up.” Riot!
Three words to be engraved on any political parties’ grave stone. ‘Mugged by Reality’.
THE BUDGET
Of three things we can be certain, 1) The very rich will get richer, 2) People who work desperately hard to improve their lot-the middle class-will be slaughtered, 3) The footy loving bludgers will have bucket loads of cash shoveled at them.
Why is this so? 1) The mega-rich are few and can have their finances off-shore. Think Jamie Packer. 2) The middle-classes are forced to have their finances in Oz, and, in Oz, anyone seen to be trying will always be penalized. 3) The footy-loving, mega-multiplying, lower-class have loads of ego-groups dying to give them anything from a free right to have six children to the right of driving the most expensive car in OZ.
I’m waiting for tomorrow’s commentary with references to the ‘silent generation’ post the Great Depression. Opportunities lost, growth in conservatism (that should please Turnbull) and the hand of fate falling on young shoulders. If Swanee can put up a foil to those sorts of references he’s home on a winner.
I think I’ll go back to bed.