The Australian Bureau of Statistics is about to dramatically intervene in the debate over the life expectancy gap between indigenous and non-indigenous Australians by unveiling new data showing indigenous life expectancy is significantly higher than previously calculated.
The new data is the product of a year’s research into ways to address under-reporting of the deaths of indigenous people but is likely to lead to claims the Government is manipulating data to suit its “Closing the Gap” agenda.
The ABS decided not to publish indigenous life expectancy data from 2007 last year as it grappled with addressing the problem of accurately counting indigenous deaths. Previously, it was estimated that the gap between indigenous life expectancy and that of the overall population was about 17 years. Life expectancy for all Australian children born in 2005 is now 79 years for boys and nearly 84 years for girls.
The ABS’s previous method would, if applied based on current data, yield indigenous life expectancy of 61.7 years for boys and 69.3 for girls. This “indirect” method tried to identify the extent of under-reporting of indigenous deaths, which is a critical impediment to estimating life expectancy among indigenous communities and primarily a consequence of non-reporting of a deceased person’s indigenous status by people filling out death registration forms. The method tries to compare how a population changes between censuses and how that matches with registered deaths.
The method has developed through several iterations in recent decades but is heavily dependent on assumptions about issues like migration and census coverage. Changes in assumptions can yield two or three years’ difference in life expectancy results. One version had Northern Territory indigenous males suffering a near six year fall in life expectancy to below 52 years between 2001 and 2006, while NSW indigenous male life expectancy rose more than seven years.
In November the ABS produced a discussion paper proposing a new, more direct method that used the fact that the ABS had conducted an additional indigenous mortality study after the 2006 Census that enabled it to better understand the extent of under-reporting of indigenous deaths. This will allow the ABS to better adjust its figures to account for under-reporting.
The result it likely to be a dramatic increase in indigenous life expectancy — the discussion paper suggests just under 67 for boys and 72.6 for girls.
The ABS, which says it has received overwhelmingly positive feedback on the discussion paper, will release details of its decision on the methodology it will adopt on Monday morning, including the results of its new calculations of indigenous life expectancy, which is likely to be more like a 12-year gap than a 17-year gap.
The ABS will heavily caveat the material to warn that the new figures cannot be compared to previous data. Inevitably, however, the abrupt narrowing of the life expectancy gap will be interpreted as a Government attempt to claim big progress in addressing indigenous health.
so,as a caucasian, if I sniff petrol, and chrome paint , I will live longer ?
More bullocks, from people who never left their office to go home, little only to stand in the boots in the dust of a black fella camp.. Nothing can statistically demonstrate the horror of most blackfella communities. Who dies? how they died? why they died? when they died? who was to blame? why did it happen? and so on all point to one thing. Nobody knows. The average blackfella police-person in the bush is pushed to much more than put on a death certificate something-anything so not to bring in coroners office or more. He just has to put it down to ‘life’in a camp.. I was in a camp where a new born baby was slept on and killed by two drunk people, suffocated, the horror still haunts me, the copper put down cot death. What else could he do? I want to see ABS in landcruisers. autopsies are something the black fellas only see on CSI TV. The reason -Money+Facts, and if the true facts get out about the mess it would be hell for any government. It is better to have the local nurse or Police fill out the paper work than to bring down the regular level of justice on Mr and Mrs Average have on White Street. We have some justice some health some support, they have only what they have and to compare it to TV they watch.
How about an enquirers into non custodial black deaths. Government would run scared, so would the black community, so would the whites. I did, I was witness to a man slaughter and just had to leave town. Never say the name,never mention the place.
Broke my heart,
I hope they don’t end up comparing apples with oranges. Many indigenous persons are part caucasian, and or part philippino, malay or whatever and live what can only be described as a “normal” Oz lifestyle, as opposed to the people described by Stephen Grant above.
The calculation of the 17 years gap was never precise anyway. So let’s not worry about whether it is 17 or 12. The gap is enormous and getting obsessed with quantifying enormity in this context is a waste of time. The gap is a national diagrace.
What is even more of a disgrace is the gap – again enormous – between the Rudd government’s rhetoric and the reality on Aboriginal health. That gap is also a national disgrace. I can’t quantify that but the Aboriginal community now know that they can rely on neither the coalition or the ALP. There may be uncertainty about whether the gap is 12 or 17. There is no uncertainty about whether the government genuinely seek to close the gap. They don’t.
If this new method gives a more honest picture of the difference then that will be a good thing in helping frame policy to reduce that gap further in the future.
I noticed Bernard got a mention in dispatches from the gorgeous Leigh Sales on Lateline tonight although Michael Costello pooh poohed her question based on the PM&C spin article from yesterday. Kroger was excellent.
Still… Leigh Sales …… phoar eh? eh?