More polling problems for Turnbull

This weeks Essential Report comes in with the primaries running 50 (steady) / 34 (down 1) to Labor, washing out for a two party preferred of 60/40 the same way – a one point increase from last week. The Greens come in with 8% while the broad “Others” come in with 9%. This comes from a rolling two week sample of 1820, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.3% mark.

Worth noting is that Essential Report has had the vote moving incrementally, but consistently away from the Coalition over the last month or so:

The other questions this week focus on approval rating breakdowns, issue management and an interesting question on whether the government has done enough for business/working people. These questions run off a sample 1003 deep, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 3.1% mark.

With the approval questions, the time series of the results are more interesting so we’ll run the results for each leader as a set of charts starting with total approval/disapproval, followed by the strength of their respective approval and disapproval.

Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister?

On the cross-tabs, Essential says:

94% of Labor voters approve of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister and only 2% of these same voters disapprove.

24% of Coalition voters approve of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister and 65% of these same voters disapprove. 63% of Green voters approve of the job he is doing as Prime Minister.

Respondents aged 18 – 24 were more likely than respondents aged 55 years and over to approve of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister (63% v 52%).

Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Opposition Leader?

On the cross-tabs Essential says:

11% of Labor voters approve of the job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as Opposition Leader and 77% of these same voters disapprove.

75% of Greenvoters disapprove of the job he is doing as Opposition Leader.

Respondents aged 55 years and over were slightly more likely than those aged 18 – 24 to approve of the job Turnbull is doing as Opposition Leader (28% v 24%).

Thinking about Federal politics, please tell me if you think the following issues are very important, important, not very important or not at all important.

On the cross-tabs we have:

There were no significant differences in terms of demographics and rating of importance, with most issues rated consistently high amongst all groups. However people aged 55 years and over were more likely than 18 – 24 year olds to rate the age pension as very important/important (98% v 80%).

People aged 55 years and over were also more likely than younger people to rate aged care as very important/important (99% v 86%).

How would you rate the performance of the Federal Government on these issues?

A short set of cross-tabs tell us that, “Respondents aged 45 – 54 were more likely than those in other age groups to rate the performance of the Federal Government on aged care as poor/very poor (51%). ”

Has the Rudd Labor Government given too much, enough or not enough support to Australian working people?

The cross-tabs have us:

Labor and Green voters were more likely to think the Rudd Labor Government has given enough support to Australian working people (62% Labor, 60% Green) and Coalition voters were more likely to think they have not done enough (44%) or too much (18%).

Respondents in full time work were more likely to think the Rudd Government has given enough support to working people (50%), as were people earning $1600 or more per week (56%).

And has the Rudd Labor Government given too much, enough or not enough support to Australian businesses?

The cross-tabs tell us:

Labor and Green voters were more likely to think the Rudd Labor Government has given enough support to Australian businesses (61% Labor, 60% Green) and Coalition voters were more likely to think they have not given enough support (54%).

Respondents in full time work were more likely to think the Rudd Government has given enough support to Australian businesses (54%).

It’s fascinating how the breakdowns are almost identical for those two questions! If I were a cynic, I’d think that partisan identification might be at work here among the respondents!

Do you think the Australian Government is doing too much, enough or not enough to help its Pacific neighbours deal with the impacts of climate change?

Essential says on the cross-tabs:

Coalition voters were more likely to think the Australian Government is doing too much (30%) and Labor voters more likely to think they are doing enough to help its Pacific neighbours deal with climate change (34%).

Green voters were more likely to think the Australian Government is not doing enough (54%).