In the aftermath of the Carpenter Government’s 2008 defeat, newly elected Opposition leader Eric Ripper confidently touted that Labor was “only one by-election away from government”.
Twelve months into Colin Barnett’s reign and that number has gone the other way, thanks to the shock defection of city-dwelling country MLA Vince Catania and the loss of Fremantle to the Greens. But no matter how small the government’s majority, the point is moot — the tide is well and truly in Barnett’s favour and Labor isn’t going to be taking any seats off his coalition colleagues any time soon.
Minority governments in Australia have a tendency to make improbably large gains at their second election, a prospect that should be keeping Labor’s marginal-seat MPs awake at night.
Those same MPs are quick to label Barnett “the accidental Premier” — a fall guy who was never meant to win — but if history is any judge, then it should be smooth sailing for the Libs.
Three such accidental Premiers in the past 20 years should set a reassuring precedent for Barnett. Peter Beattie, Mike Rann and Steve Bracks all came into the Premiership on wafer-thin majorities and all managed to engineer electoral wipeouts in their second term.
After a year in the job, Barnett has made similar progress in his efforts to secure his toehold on government and is looking to make further inroads into Opposition territory at the next election.
The first plank in the Liberals’ bridge to the next election is the $170 billion worth of private investment on its way to WA. In a state obsessed with big plans, big projects and big developments, that’s a hell of a stick to beat the ALP with. Secondly, while Barnett himself is a shrewd political operator, he came into the job too late to influence party preselections, inheriting a team of misfits and factional heirs bereft of political talent.
The fact that ultra-conservative deadwood such as Rob Johnson and Robyn McSweeney sit on the front bench is a testament to the challenge facing the Premier.
If he is to secure his position for the long term, Barnett needs to get down and dirty in the preselection process to bring in new talent and cut loose the dead weights occupying safe Liberal seats. As Alan Carpenter proved, such a move is risky for a leader with no factional base of support, but if done properly it could pay big dividends.
Carpenter’s mistake was to try and build his own faction by preselecting candidates with little or no previous connection to the party, when he should have been throwing his support behind existing contenders.
Doing so would have shielded him from accusations of power-grabbing, while having the added advantage of preserving the ALPs (relatively) peaceful factional hegemony.
Unlike Carpenter, however, Barnett has the authority of a leader who has actually won an election as opposed to a leader who is simply assumed to be wining one.
Instead of staging such a disastrous coup, the Premier needs to quietly but firmly nudge his party in the right direction, even if it puts a few caucus members offside. Hangers-on and seat warmers can thus be flushed out with minimal distress, but only if he lays the groundwork now.
Barnett’s inner managerial type knows this, but he’s yet to summon the gravitas to put it into action.
Notwithstanding some political disaster, the Liberals are on course for a second term in office. Barnett’s actions will decide whether that likelihood becomes a reality.
Interesting that while one agrees with some of the points made, there are many not made.
For example, Carpenter got completely off side with large chunks of the union movement, particularly Public Servants as he dithered and stalled over completely justified wage claims. When he decided to go with the early election, suddenly there was blanket approval of claims, too late Alan, the damage was done. It was obvious suddenly the union vote became a factor in his ill conceived plan but the reverse did not apply, he was no longer a factor and therefore his Govt was going to lose a large chunk of usually dependable votes. There was also the dont worry folks, it will be ok in time attitude. Most of the time it wasn’t.
One hangover from the former Govt which the Nats leader Grylls used to his great advantage in the Bush was the remote allowance. He promised loudly and often, as soon as he became the Premiers right hand man, the remote allowance would be raised to a meaningful just level. It is currently around 47 dollars a fortnight for a public servant working in say Esperance WA. 800 kilometres from Perth and 400 kilometres from Kalgoorlie. The air fare from Esperance to Perth is approx 330 dollars one way, less by 60 to 90 dollars if one is lucky enough to get one of the cheaper seats allocated per flight on a pre 21 day booking. Wow 47 dollars goes a long way towards that!! Lets not forget dearer food prices, petrol, in fact anything that is trucked in is much more expensive than perth or Bunbury. What has happened to the promised increase by grylls? Sweet bloody fanny. Thats no longer a consideration according to the self rightous Grylls, cant afford it, that wicked Treasurer, the chair sniffer wont give him the money. Thats just one of many undelivered promises, there is flip flopping and back tracking all over the show and the Coalition is hardly endearing itself with its absurd lack of green policies. Conservation is hardly mentioned and then there is the joke who is the water minister, the education minister, the health minister!!!!! who is that? Oh of course there is one name just escapes me.
No its not a done deal that the Barnett conglomeration is a shoe in next time, too many variables yet, and if Labor finds itself a more dynamic leader, Barnett will have a battle.
Meantime the chains are rattling.
Carr in NSW March 1995 by 3 seats he didn’t really expect. 1999 romped it in, more’s the pity.