Calls are mounting for the Federal Government to reduce its wide-ranging fiscal stimulus package as economists continue to upgrade the prospects for the Australian economy.
The decision by the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percent, with another potential raising coming in November added to the contradiction of the Government continuing to spend freely while monetary policy is tightened and economic growth is forecast to hit 4.5 percent by 2011.
While the masses have strongly approved of the Federal Government stimulus (only 20% of respondents to a Fairfax/AC Nielson poll wanted the stimulus wound back), that is largely because people tend to like to receive “free money”, even if that money isn’t really free — their children will most likely be paying for it for a long time. This column has been a fervent opponent of much the Federal government’s fiscal spending. Not because the economy isn’t potentially falling in a bigger hole (it quite possibly is), but rather, due to the manner in which the spending has occurred.
The Keynesian premise of increasing spending to substitute for falling private demand is not entirely devoid of logic — however, the use of such discretionary stabilizers depends not only on spending appropriately but also maintaining some sort of fiscal responsibility during preceding boom years. Courtesy of the Howard Government’s spendthrift ways that was not the case. The old parable of Joseph (of Technicolor Dreamcoat fame) advising Pharaoh to stock up during the seven years of plenty and spend during the seven years of famine is primarily dependant on the “stocking up” part. Most Governments prefer to spend during boom years (especially on voting special interest groups like retiring baby boomers) and splurge even more during the bust, resulting in a large debt or debasement of currency.
Some of the Federal Government’s fiscal spending has been completely idiotic, whereas other elements have been merely stupid. The boosted first home owner’s grant takes the cake for lunacy — unless handing taxpayer dollars to wealthy property investors and loading up young first home owners with 90% LVR mortgages is considered wise policy. Had the grant been exclusively aimed towards new properties, while greatly assisting property developers, there would have at least been some merit by stimulating construction. No such benefit is achieved by applying the boost to all properties, rather, the Government simply caused house prices to inflate and buyers to assume greater debts.
The wanton $900 stimulus payments, while ostensibly designed to boost discretionary consumer spending, appeared little more than an arbitrary transfer of wealth. That a chunk of the stimulus was pumped into poker machines (gaming companies reported record revenue rises in the month the stimulus payments were made) does little to dispel the notion that votes, rather than rational economic policy, was the underlying motivation for the payments.
The Government’s vehicle investment allowance is possibly worse. As witnessed in the US after the recent demise of the “cash for clunkers” policy, when the artificial stimulus was withdrawn, vehicle sales promptly slumped (GM sales dropped by 45% — almost half — in the month after the “clunkers” program ended). All a vehicle allowance really does is bring forward future demand and effectively hand money to one sector of the community (car companies and dealers) at the expense of the rest of the community (low and middle income taxpayers). The other beneficiaries of the vehicle investment allowance are business owners who used the allowance to upgrade their vehicle. Crikey knows of several business people who have used the allowance to purchase luxury sports cars for $7000 off the normal price. If Australian voters actually realized that their PAYG tax payments were going towards a discount for someone’s new Mercedes CLK350, perhaps they would not be such ardent supporters of the Government’s economic genius.
The home insulation spending, while ostensibly good in theory (making Australian homes more energy efficient), like many government initiatives, was deeply flawed in practice. Yesterday the Financial Review reported that “about 100 companies approved to install ceiling insulation under the Government’s $2.7 billion rebate program have been dumped…complaints of dodgy behaviour from installers — including fraudulent invoicing, overcharging and shonky workmanship — forced the Government in August to write to all home owners who had received the rebate to check if there were any problems. More than 1200 complaints have been received.”
Stimulus spending may boost GDP but does not achieve the ultimate aim of economic management — higher overall living standards. If the Government were to spend money on real nation building or desperately needed infrastructure projects (much of Sydney and Melbourne’s train system is in dire need of improvement, for example), while it would be of little immediate benefit to GDP (or the Government’s popularity), it may actually be a wise use of taxpayers monies. Unlike handing cash to property vendors or luxury car buyers.
Whinge, whinge!! Many of us appreciated that $900. If you received it and didn’t need it then pass it on to someone who does.
Mmany of us have paid off previous recessions including Howard’s in the early 80s. We didn’t whinge – we just got on with it and paid it off.
The repayment of this small deficit is nothing compared to the misery if more people had been thrown out of work. Quick fixes needed, quick fixes given by the Govt.
Economists have been wrong on so many occasions – why should you be right now.
How about supporting your opinion re government debt with a few statistical comparisons?
How does Australia’s GFC response compare per capita with other nations?
How much Government debt is Australia carrying per capita and as a percentage of GDP compared to other nations?
How do our real and actual interest rates compare with other nations?
How are our banks going wrt other nations?
How are our GDP growth/deflation indices compare?
How many of our private citizens not meeting loan repayments for houses? Credit cards?… Compare.
How are our employment rends going wrt other nations? Wrt previous downturns?
Perhaps the elephant in the room… How big is Aussie private foreign debt when compared to other nations?
My gut feeling is that on many of the above measures, Australia is doing quite well at a government level and that private foreign debt is a continuing problem.
And on the subject of fixing public transport in capital cities, especially Sydney. Why is it necessary for NSW to sell its sole profitable country-based public asset, the power industry, at bargain basement prices to support the poorly planned and serviced Sydneysiders? If Sydney, after bleeding the remainder of the state dry year after year, needs money, why not sell off Sydney Water? The locals could consider the relative merits of privately owned water supply versus subsidised capital works for transport. Where I live, public transport is just a wish, apart from the school bus. We do have taxis, but very unreliable and not exactly cheap.
Back on topic, I will not be persuaded by an article which is long on opinion and almost devoid of statistical basis.
All right, I don’t disagree on the examples you gave except the $900 (which benefited people/small businesses across the board not just pokey machines) and I’m glad you avoided the nasty clanger of attacking the school infrastructure spending (if you had that big a problem with this type of spending then why didn’t you say so when Howard gave God knows how much to the private schools).
I think you could have probably said it better but I agree in principal in what you said.
Oh and I don’t agree with the home loaners grant for new properties. I don’t agree with the urban sprawl argument, it costs too much in infrastructure expenditure.
Surely the proof is in the pudding here. Unemployment down, GDP up slightly. Not bad
The major criticism of Government spending in the economy is that it takes so long to make an impact on the economy. The crisis “might” be over and done with by the time the money actually starts being spent so the spending just becomes inflationary and tightening monetary policy is the end result.
But the Rudd government went with the transfer payments first. The effectiveness of these payments is their speed. It was a way they could ramp up consumer spending immediately so that aggregate demand would be maintained until the Government investment in infrastructure could kick in. Not a bad strategy really, and it’s worked.
I think the Government has been rather clever about their targeting of spending as well. Consumer Spending is a key economic indicator. Sale of cars and equipment is a measure used to track business Investment. House construction approvals are used as a guide as well. All these indicators maintained their levels due to the Government’s stimulous packages and tax cuts. The level of confidence given to punters and business in having these indicators holding steady cannot be underestimated.
You can argue that the spending might be too big (I disagree..better to overstimulate fiscally and have rising interest rates from 3%, than have interest rates at 0% and try to stimulate out of a slump. Japan anyone?) However, once the economy recovers, the deficit will start being bought under control due to increased tax receipts and decreased unemployment benefits. It’s already happening with our debt levels not as high as forecasted. Remember the power of the automatic stabilisers and the multiplier effect.
the real benefit behind the ‘stock up during the seven years of plenty and spend during the seven years of famine’ can only be gained through seven years of planning
you have to be ready to start spending as soon as that famine starts, and, regardless of how obvious the bust was in hindsight, governments simply didn’t / refused to see it coming
it takes many years for governments to plan big infrastructure projects and the payback to the community doesn’t start until well into the construction stage
the reason why governments like big infrastructure projects is because government spending requires lots of checks and balances, and checks and balances cost lots of money… small projects are difficult because these checks are not cost effective and hence allow dodgy operators to line their pockets
it seems to me, the government just tried to get money flowing, as much a promise to encourage business confidence as anything
the real test of the government is not how well they manage a quick spend
it is how well they plan for the next 7 years of plenty and 7 years of famine