If only picking the Cup winner could have been so easy.

The easiest call in town was a rate rise from the Reserve Bank today and the Martin Place mob delivered, on the nose at 2.30 pm.

Odds-on maybe, but a winner is a grinner.

The Reserve Bank lifted its key interest rate by 0.25% to 3.50%, the second such move in as many months.

The decision was revealed in a statement after the bank’s board met this morning.

In fact, it was more of the same from the central bank and it has left open the possibility of a further rate rise in December, or one in February or whenever.

It is clear from the statement that the RBA is now back to ‘situation normal’ in its monetary policy deliberations. the urgency and sense of emergency has well passed.

Now its time to prepare for an economy on a more regularised footing.

A rate rise could certainly happen next month and tomorrow’s September retail sales and building approvals and next week’s jobless figures for October, will go some way to sorting out that question.

The wording in the bank’s final paragraph was again changed from the September meeting, to push the GFC further into the recent past.

Today the bank said: “The Board noted that the rise in the exchange rate is likely to constrain output in the tradeables sector and dampen price pressures.

“Nonetheless, growth is likely to be close to trend over the year ahead and inflation close to target. With the risk of serious economic contraction in Australia now having passed, the Board’s view is that it is prudent to lessen gradually the degree of monetary stimulus that was put in place when the outlook appeared to be much weaker.

“The adjustments at the October and November meetings will work to increase the sustainability of growth in economic activity and keep inflation consistent with the target over the years ahead.”

In the October statement, the final paragraph read:

“In late 2008 and early 2009, the cash rate was lowered quickly, to a very low level, in expectation of very weak economic conditions and a recognition that considerable downside risks existed. That basis for such a low interest rate setting has now passed, however.

“With growth likely to be close to trend over the year ahead, inflation close to target and the risk of serious economic contraction in Australia now having passed, the Board’s view is that it is now prudent to begin gradually lessening the stimulus provided by monetary policy.

“This will work to increase the sustainability of growth in economic activity and keep inflation consistent with the target over the years ahead.”

So the GFC is dead, long live the past, as the Federal Government told us yesterday in its upgraded mid year financial outlook.

The Federal Government forecast growth of 1.5% in the current 2009-10 year, up from a forecast of a 0.5% contraction made in the May budget.

The Government also slashed its projections for the unemployment rate, which is now expected to be 6.75% by next June, down from 8.25% in 2011. The jobless rate is currently at 5.7%.

RBA Governor Glenn Stevens speaks in Melbourne Thursday evening, and the RBA will produce its new forecasts for 2011 and beyond in its 4th Monetary Policy State for the year on Friday.