Another Friday, another sweep around the betting markets for the looming Federal Election. Over the past week, the ALP prices offered by our five agencies changed from “not at all” through to increasing by 7 cents. On the Coalition side of the equation, the change over the last week was between zero and a 20 cent reduction in the offered prices:
For all the noise over Garrett, the average increase in the probability of a Coalition victory over the last week was less than 1%.I guess the punters were far less excited over it’s consequences than was the Abbotariat in the paramilitary opinion wing of The Oz. The individual probabilities for the five agencies on our watch list come in like this:
All the agencies land within a 2.4% implied probability spread of each other, giving us a nice rounded aggregate of 75/25.
Moving along to our exciting time series chart – now with 4 observations (!!) – we find the five agency average shifting towards the Coalition over February by 2.9%.
About a month ago, some of you folks sent me emails – mostly about some of the maths of these markets – and you haven’t yet got a reply from me. Sorry about that, I was trying out a new email program and did indeed send a reply – I sent them straight into the draft folder, which I only realised last night. So, er… yeah, I’ll get back to you today!
Crikey is committed to hosting lively discussions. Help us keep the conversation useful, interesting and welcoming. We aim to publish comments quickly in the interest of promoting robust conversation, but we’re a small team and we deploy filters to protect against legal risk. Occasionally your comment may be held up while we review, but we’re working as fast as we can to keep the conversation rolling.
The Crikey comment section is members-only content. Please subscribe to leave a comment.
The Crikey comment section is members-only content. Please login to leave a comment.