Climate change in Australia — of the political variety — is real and happening now. As a fresh opinion poll rolls in every few days, the underlying trend is moving inexorably against Labor. Here’s a sampling over the past week:
Federal: Newspoll, published today, shows little change in party polling (government ahead on two-party-preferred terms 52-48), but Tony Abbott’s satisfaction rating jumped four points to 48. Yesterday’s Essential Research has Labor’s lead at a new low of 53-47, down from 54-46 last week and 55-45 a week before.
Victoria: Nine months out from a state election, yesterday’s Morgan Poll puts Liberal and National support at 50.5, leading the ALP (49.5) for the first time on a two-party preferred basis. And although John Brumby (50.5) is clearly preferred as the “better Premier ” ahead of Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu (30.5), 47% disapprove of Brumby’s handling of the job compared to only 37% who approve.
South Australia: A Sunday Mail poll over the weekend showed a swing of around 10 per cent against Labor in the key marginal seat of Morialta, weeks out from a state election.
Tasmania: Last Wednesday’s EMRS poll had Labor are down two points since November to 31, the Liberals down five to 39 and the Greens are up six to 27 — which would give the Greens the balance of power in this month’s state election.
Even allowing for local factors, margins of error, temporary issues and blips, you’d be hard pressed not to conclude that the punters are uneasy and the mood is running against the incumbents everywhere.
Batten down the hatches.
I note you did not mention the abysmal numbers of the Government in NSW, some things need no further comment.
It seems that a swing against incumbency everywhere is in evidence.
Can you tell if this also extends to the relatively new WA Government as well?
So in Tassie, if greens gain 6 or more and the libs loose 6 or more, then the Greens would win ?
@Michael James
I suspect you are making mischief, but the polls in WA show strong support for the incumbent Coalition Government. This is more likely due to the lack of a credible Opposition rather than the popularity of the Barnett-Grylls Government or any federal factors.
Victoria ,South Australia and Tasmania all have governments that have been in office for quite a while. The ” Its Time ” factor comes into play as evidenced by the Howard government which lost even though the GFC had yet to hit. Abbott has enjoyed a lift in the polls but so did Latham. The big difference I see is that the coalition is bereft of talent . Putting back in people like Andrews ( Haneef ), Ruddock , Bronny Bishop only revisits the failings of the former government. Joyce is making Hockey look like a man who would rather be doing anything than what he has been handed. Greg Hunt who has some nous has to defend a policy he doesn,t believe in while rubbishing the Labor policy that he was advocating alongside Turnbull. Voters elect governments not a one man band and Abbott as yet hasn,t delivered any policy. Lots of sound bites but no policy. Even Latham delivered more than that.
What do the betting agencies (Sportsbet) have to say?
At a Federal level, Sportsbet currently has the ALP at $1.25 compared to ‘any other party’ at $3.80. For Victoria, it is $1.27 for the ALP and $3.65 for the Coalition. For SA, it is $1.20 for the ALP and $4.25 for the Coalition. In Tassie, it is $1.72 for the ALP and $2.05 for the Coalition.
They only worthwhile bet for me at this stage would be Tasmania otherwise you may as well give away the rest! Rudd is a definite for another term!