Imagine you’re in the exalted position of sitting around the board table of the Reserve Bank today, mulling over whether to lift or sit steady on the cash rate, currently at 3.75%. It’s still finely balanced, as it was in February when the bank surprised the market by not moving rates.

This was the key part of the February 2 minutes: “As at the previous meeting, members considered the policy considerations to be finely balanced. Discussion has been heading towards this point all morning.”

Around 11.32 am a door opens and in comes the head of economic research with two printouts in his hand: “Retail sales up 1.2% in January, building approvals down 7%,” he says to the assembled directors, looking at Governor Glenn Stevens. And that’s what confronted the RBA board this morning just after the Australian Bureau of Statistics released retail sales and building approvals for January.

For retail sales, no impact of the rate rises in the last three months of 2009 here. The increase in January followed the fall of 0.9% in December and the 1.5% rise in November.

Retail sales were solid; the 1.2% was again driven by a rise in spending in cafes, takeaway joints and eateries. Australians obviously have enough money to spend on luxuries like eating out, even if it is coffee. This group has now being leading the retail recovery for the best part of a year or more. Food, department stores, clothes and household goods were also sold, while sales were up in Western Australia, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia; down in Tasmania; steady in Queensland.

Building approvals was a bit of a surprise on the surface. The 7% fall followed four months of rises. Approvals for private sector houses rose 0.3%, and the usual lumpy nature of non private dwellings showed up with a 21.9% drop in approvals for apartments, units and townhouses. It and private sector houses did have two months of rises. Obviously the councils were slow in January, or the banks were unusually tough in extending credit to developers.

So the 2010 score so far: January employment data was strong, with the rate down to 5.3%; retail sales were okay; private housing okay; new home sales up 9.5% in January, according to the Housing Industry Association; business conditions seem to be on the up with the manufacturing sector seeing growth. Confidence is still sold; job ads were weak in January, but its early days; ad revenues in TV are improving.

So what do you do, sit or lift? Explain your decision in 1,000 words, you have 50 minutes. Give your reasons in a form suitable for a statement at 2.30 pm with the rate decision, or page one tomorrow.

After getting it so wrong last month, commentators are cautious in their speculation; more each-way punting on a rate rise after the odds-on feeling ahead of the February 2 meeting.  There’s been the usual $50 a month rate rise story, hectoring of the banks, with Choice urging them to act quickly.

Much of the stuff is nonsense and could be stored on a default key in a word processor and printed once a month before every Reserve Bank meeting. But what they have missed is that the central bank has arranged another full month of comments and appearances by senior staff and by the bank.

By the end of this month the RBA and its senior staff will have made 16 separate appearances or comments in various economic matters, from interest rates, to financial stability, the conduct of monetary policy, mining booms and their impact on Australia, to the payments system and the health of financial markets here and offshore. That follows on from an active month in February where there were seven appearances or reports and commentaries, from Governor Glenn Stevens down.

The first Statement of Monetary Policy for the year was the centrepoint, along with minutes of the board meeting that didn’t lift rates to the Governor’s appearance for the year before the House of Reps Economics Committee. Starting yesterday, the bank has nine separate occasions where staff and the bank will be making statements. Stevens kicked off proceedings yesterday in Melbourne with a plethora of comments on bank capital, national debt, bank regulation and the economy.

After today’s rates decision the bank’s head of economics, Assistant Governor Phil Lowe, makes two speeches on March 10 and 25 to go with his speech last month. Assistant Governor Malcolm Edey (Financial System) talks at a payments conference and Assistant Governor (financial markets) Guy Debelle speaks on a panel in Sydney mid-month.

The Governor returns to the public stage on March 26 with a speech in Sydney, the day after the half-yearly Financial Stability review will be released on March 25. All that’s missing is Deputy Governor Ric Battellino to round everyone up and make the point, as he did last week with his speech on the impact of mining booms in Australia.

Glenn Dyer will have the Reserve Bank decision and complete analysis on the Crikey website after 2pm.