Crikey can reveal that polling commissioned by six unions in Queensland and undertaken by Labor pollster UMR in late February, shows a Bligh government getting pounded by public opposition to a controversial privatisation regime — creating a backlash so large that it threatens to spill across into the federal election arena later this year.
The survey analysis, including focus group research, used a quantitative sample of 1500 respondents across five diverse state seats:
- Rockhampton, represented by Minister for Public Works and ICT Rob Schwarten
- Greenslopes, represented by Attorney-General Cameron Dick
- Mount Coot-tha, represented by Treasurer Andrew Fraser
- Pine Rivers, represented by Parliamentary Secretary for Education Carolyn Male
- Townsville, represented by Mandy Johnstone
The total results suggest an average swing against Labor of 7% since the last election (MoE = 2.5%). The seat by seat headline results come in like this (MoE = 5.5%):
The most important finding in the research was that 43% of ex-Labor voters who have changed their partisan support since the election, did so because of the Bligh government’s plan to sell or lease government assets, including Queensland motorways, the Port of Brisbane, forestry operations, parts of Queensland Rail and the Abbott Point coal terminal.
The research also found that 32% of ex-Labor voters changed their support away from Labor because of their disapproval of the way the state was being managed, while 12% did so because of broken promises and perceptions that the government had lied.
Ex-Labor voters — called switchers — were only one key group identified in the research. The other key group that was focused upon were soft voters, defined as those respondents that were unsure who they would vote for, or said they were likely to change their vote. These soft voters made up 36% of all respondents.
When these two groups were asked “If the state Labor government goes ahead with these sales would it make you more likely or less likely to vote for Labor in the next state election?”, the depth of feeling against the asset sales came through strongly:
The Bligh government, in response to the voter backlash, changed its asset sale program to offer 99-year leases on most of the assets rather than an outright sale. However, the research also reveals that 66% of respondents said changing from outright sales to 99-year leases made no difference to their support of the privatisation program, with 15% saying they were less likely to support the program as a result of the leases and 16% saying they were more likely to support the program.
This strong public opposition to the state government program is spilling across into Rudd’s chances of winning and retaining Queensland seats at the upcoming federal election. UMR explained to respondents that the asset sale plan was a Bligh state government program and asked if the Bligh government goes ahead with the leases and sales, whether it would make respondents more or less likely to vote for Labor at the coming federal election. The results show a clear danger to the federal ALP’s chances in Queensland as a result of the privatisation program.
These figures suggest that the Bligh government’s asset sale plan will reduce the ALP’s two-party preferred vote share at the federal election in Queensland by up to about 2%. That is a significant impediment to Labor winning and retaining seats in Rudd’s home state.
Yet, even though this is a pretty gloomy survey result for the Bligh government and Rudd’s chances in Queensland, there was also a rather unusual result in the findings. On the question of whether people believed that the state was on the right track or the wrong track — the respondents were split at 45 a piece with 10 unsure.
That level of generic political outlook suggests that not all is lost for Bligh. When combined with asset sales being the dominant issue that is chasing votes away from Labor, with the union movement agitating for the program to be overturned and with Bligh’s program spilling political consequences across into the federal election sphere — the option of a back flip with a triple pike on the asset sale program must be filling the minds of Labor politicians everywhere.
There was more in this research, and we’ll go over the rest of it tomorrow on the blog.
The Bligh government has TWO years to run, one hell of a lot can happen in that time, too much assuming!.
While many Unions are panicking about these sales some definately make sense.
BHP Billiton will buy the Coal Rail. A good thing, they have plenty of cash and will never complain again.
Queensland Roads are in need of investment, OK you may have to pay for some of it, so what if it removes danger spots and speeds up transport.
I vote ALP but when I see Council or Government workers around they are seldom rushed. Naturally they wish to stay in “cushy” jobs.
Come on, we’ve all had it too good for too long and I am a Pensioner.
How does Andrew Fraser (Mt Coot-tha) escape with no swing, when he is the Treasurer, and the most vocal supporter of Bligh of the MPs in this survey?