The ALP retains a commanding lead over the Coalition according to this week’s Essential Report, and Kevin Rudd has attracted strong support for his health reform plan.
Essential Research’s poll, conducted from 16-21 March, shows no change in the ALP’s high level of support, with a 2PP outcome of 56-44. Kevin Rudd still holds a strong lead over Tony Abbott as preferred Prime Minister, 50% to 30%, but Abbott has improved on his 25% from immediately after he became leader.
Last week’s speculation, fuelled by the Opposition, that Labor may be turning its mind to a post-Rudd future has little electoral support. In addition to the Rudd-Abbott match-up, Essential also compared Julia Gillard and Abbott and Rudd and Joe Hockey. Gillard bested Abbott by 10% – with stronger support among female voters for Gillard — and Rudd doubled Joe Hockey’s support, 53-27%, although interestingly Hockey drew stronger support than Abbott from other parties’ voters and the same levels of support from older voters (traditionally more conservative) and Queenslanders.
However, the only evidence from the electorate is of a PM with a strong lead over his rival and a popular deputy to step in in the event of disaster.
The surprise of the poll is that Kevin Rudd’s health reform plan, involving a Federal takeover of hospitals funding controlled by small-area hospital networks, drew very strong support right across all voters. Overall, 58% support Rudd’s plan and only 12% oppose it, including 25% of voters saying they strongly support the plan. The numbers also show exactly why the Government is happy to have the political agenda dominated by health.
Worryingly for the Coalition, 46% of Coalition voters say they support Rudd’s plan and only 22% do not. Even the Coalition’s base supports the plan, with 31% of older voters strongly supportive and 25% of higher-income earners.
With Tony Abbott saying he will refuse to reveal any details of his own policy at tomorrow’s health debate, the only way he can shift this debate in his favour is to launch an enormously successful scare campaign about Rudd’s plan, a tough ask given he is on the record as supporting both federal funding and local management.
Essential asked about a federal takeover of hospitals not long before the Rudd plan was revealed and the results were very similar – 58% support, 10% opposing, and 26% very supportive, suggesting neither Abbott’s line about “a great big new bureaucracy” nor the State Premiers’ demands to see more detail have gained any traction with voters since the announcement.
The only areas of concern for Labor are Queensland and the apparent softness of its vote. Asked about the firmness of voting intention, there are significantly fewer “very firm” ALP voters compared to Coalition voters (43% to 58%), although the Greens are far lower than the major parties at only 26%. Labor’s vote and Rudd’s preferred PM rating are lowest in Queensland and highest in NSW, suggesting the idea of state parties dragging down their federal cousins isn’t as simple as it appears.
Interestingly, Queensland is also the only state where Tony Abbott outpoints Julia Gillard as preferred PM.
The Coalition can take some solace from maintaining its lead over the ALP as the best economic manager, with a 7% lead (the same as in January). It also has a huge lead – 42%-22% – over Labor in terms of ability to keep spending under control and leads Labor on controlling inflation and keeping interest rates low, but Labor has solid leads as perceived manager of the economy in the interests of workers and as a promoter of jobs for Australian workers.
Ironically, the Opposition has been ignoring the economy for months. By taking up Rudd’s challenge, Abbott really is keeping the political narrative firmly fixed on an issue where Rudd has commanding support. And when the Coalition eventually tries to focus on the economy, where it should be far more comfortable, it will be hamstrung by Barnaby Joyce’s and Tony Abbott’s economic illiteracy.
Why do pollsters keep asking the ludicrous economics questions? The government has only control over the taxes collected and that is only about 30% of GDP so the questions are meaningless mumbo jumbo.
Similarly the government has no control over interest rates so why bother to ask the even dumber questions over who is best to manage them?
The Howard mob were useless at so-called economic management – all they ever did was impose a great big new tax on everything for all time and bribe interest groups to vote for them.
Do give over pollsters, the questions are out of date rubbish.
The Health plan, like all of Rudds plans draws initial support from voters…
…”What you mean we can fix hospitals with this plan…this sounds good”
….then the inevidable government bungle, or he will move on to some other BS policy that will go nowere….And voters will again ask themselves;
“Why did we vote for this lying POS”
The problem with the so-called bungles by Rudd is that they are grossly overstated by the Murdock hacks.
100 complaints out of 10,000 schools and mostly minor, laughable complaints like “the library being built stopped us buying books” when one has nothing at all to do with the other.
And 96 complaints and damages from 1.1 million houses insulated is hardly a bungle.
So the take home message is: Expect the Liberals to keep hammering the xenophobia about boats, and their fear campaign on home insulation in the weeks ahead.
Given the historic vote in the US on health care reform today and the debate on health reform tomorrow, it is time to remember some recent history. Attached is a link to an Alan Ramsey article from 2003 outlining the relationship between the conservatives in Australia and Medicare.
“The Coalition twice blocked the new Whitlam government’s enabling Medibank legislation in the Senate in 1973 in Labor’s first year of office. Then, after being forced to call another election in May 1974, which it again won, that government saw its Medibank legislation voted down by the Senate a third time, forcing the historic joint sitting of the Senate and the House in August 1974 which finally passed the Medibank bills 95 votes to 92.
That May 1974 election, was the one that brought John Howard into politics. He was there in the Parliament at the joint sitting when the Coalition – this time unsuccessfully – voted against Medibank yet again.”
Nuff said