Two elections, many lessons for Australia’s parties — major and minor, state and federal — but no easy answers for anyone: How will Tasmania be resolved? Will the swing against the ALP have Federal implications? And does anyone, apart from Possum, actually understand Hare-Clarke?
The SA and Tasmanian battles may be over, but the 2010 political war has just begun, and the pundits are sharpening their swords.
Over at Crikey‘s Election Central blog, our man in the Apple Isle, Charles Richardson, says the outcome in Tassie unfolded pretty much as he expected (and confirms the startling revelation from Friday’s live-chat that Tasmanian electoral booths do not hold sausage sizzles).
Poll Bludger‘s William Bowe liveblogged both elections (who said Crikey commentators don’t know how to have a rocking Saturday night?), and is now tracking the late vote counts in both states.
Meanwhile, Pollytics‘ Possum has already picked up on some seriously interesting swing statistics in SA’s results.
Stay tuned to all our political blogs today, not to mention the Crikey Daily Mail, for more comprehensive Crikey commentary.
In the meantime, the rest of Australia’s commentariat have given their first impressions:
The Australian
Editorial: Tell the truth but keep counting
There are lessons for both sides of national politics in the weekend elections. Kevin Rudd should ease up on the spin, and Tony Abbott should focus on electoral strategy.
Editorial: The will of the politically savvy people on display
The South Australian electorate got it right on the weekend
Editorial: Tasmania’s rocky road ahead
Greens leader Nick McKim has shown that his party has still got a long way to go before it is capable of making the transistion from the politics of protest to the politics of pragmatism.
Glenn Milne: Libs back from the dead and in with a chance
There are two federal messages out of the Tasmanian and South Australian state elections at the weekend: momentum and mathematics. And both are moving Tony Abbott’s way
Dennis Shanahan: Federal lessons for both sides in poll turnarounds
… the Prime Minister and his federal colleagues would do well to look more soberly at the results and the implications for Rudd’s management style and political approach.
Peter van Onselen: Strategist eyes national target after Rann win
If Hawker can deliver South Australian Labor a victory with less than 50 per cent of the two-party vote come election time, imagine what he can do if federal Labor won a majority of the nationwide vote.
Matthew Denholm: Never say never in a hung parliament
A Liberal-Green co-existence has been tried before in the Rundle government of 1996 to 1998, and this ended in acrimony.
Adelaide Advertiser
Nigel Hunt: Bloody campaign leaves Rann badly wounded
… the Rann brand has been irreparably damaged and his days are well and truly numbered.
Sydney Morning Herald
Phillip Coorey: For anti-Labor voters, the feeling is personal
The swing against Labor in South Australia was not so much a backlash against the government but more a sign of discontent…
The Age
Michelle Grattan: Sobering brew for both Rudd and Abbott
… the lesson of SA is that while people are engaged by a new, interesting and feisty opposition leader, quite a few baulk at taking the gamble with someone they are not quite sure will be reliably up to the job.
Herald Sun
Phillip Hudson: Lessons for Tony Abbott and Kevin Rudd in South Australian and Tasmanian state election results
The message for the Liberals is that big swings by themselves aren’t enough.
Here’s one for the Tasmanians: How about you try the German approach? i.e. a “Grand Coalition”? [Liberal & Labor] If the Libs and Labor are closer to each other than either is to the Greens, why not try that experiment?
Labor in S.A will probably get a third term, and in Tasmania will possibly form a minority government for its fourth term. Given the issues the Labor governments have faced in both states, I think this proves that if anything the Liberal Party should have a long hard look at themselves, these are both elections, like the Previous NSW election that they should have won.
I think it more likely that the ALP in Tas will happily sit back for a 3-4 year rest while watching the libs fall to pieces from lack of numbers and lack of experience.
A cooperative govt is great in theory and would be great for the state but I can’t see it happening – the two major parties have too much baggage and feel too threatened by the Greens.
I also think the Tas election has no bearing whatsoever on the Feds. It was totally about local issues – there have been a lot of them over the last few years thus the swing against the incumbent govt there.
Labor in Tasmania should be concerned about their loss, but the Liberals should be equally concerned about their inability to win outright, despite Labor’s atrocious record. Tasmanians are saying that they don’t like Labour, but they don’t trust the Liberals.
What people really want is a democratic process that isn’t hobbled by two political parties. They want government to reflect more of the views of individual electorates, rather than the “volting along patry lines” view.
The non-performers and incompitants (ie Sturges) have been sacked by the electorate, and the survivors, supplemented by some new blood, have been told to make it work or else.