Back in mid-February I had to perform the unpleasant task of taking apart a Glenn Milne column about asylum seeker statistics, where at the behest of the Coalition he purported to show that UNHCR figures undermined the Government’s claim that “push factors” were the main reason behind the rise in asylum seeker applications in Australia. In fact the figures clearly demonstrated exactly what the Government was saying.
Now the same line is being pushed by the Opposition and getting another run in the media, this time not from the now ex-News Ltd commentator but from journalists with more credibility, Paul Maley and Paige Taylor at The Oz and Yuko Narushima at Fairfax. Unlike Milne, however, all three actually made an effort to provide some context to the numbers. Still, The Oz sufficiently liked the yarn that they gave it the front page, neatly obscuring the unfortunate turn of events at the National Press Club yesterday.
What occasioned this new effort by the Coalition? Some compelling new report? Some new source of data? Alas no, it was merely the finalisation of the same data we discussed back in February. A small number of countries hadn’t finalised their asylum seeker data for the last months of 2009 when the previous set of statistics was published by the UNHCR, but yesterday the final data for 2009 were released, with the missing data from November and December from many countries and some minor adjustments. In most cases, it’s the same figures with no or minimal changes.
Same data, same story: while there hasn’t been a global rise in asylum seekers, what is happening on a regional basis is more important. Regions are what matter in asylum seeker data, not the world. There isn’t one giant refugee camp somewhere from which all asylum seekers come. When there are large increases in our own region, there are large increases in asylum seekers coming to Australia and other countries. And when big increases occur in other regions, they don’t come to us, they go elsewhere.
Take Somalia: that failed state continues to be one of the major sources of refugees worldwide, and the numbers increased further in 2009, to over 22,000 asylum seekers. But Australia is too far away to be a viable destination for Somalian refugees. Last year there were 19 Somalia applicants for asylum in Australia, up from 15 before. They head instead for the EU, where there were over 18,000 applications for asylum from Somalis.
Ditto Russia, from where more than 20,000 people again sought asylum last year. 7 sought asylum with us. They aim to reach Europe, of course. France by itself had over 3,000 applications.
Scott Morrison was trying to knock that line on the head, sniffing to The Australian “”Afghanistan is hardly a regional neighbour of Australia.” Much of the increase in asylum seekers coming to Australia in the last 18 months has indeed been from Afghans. Last year Afghanistan took back the unwanted title of the world’s biggest source of refugees from Iraq, with a 45% increase in worldwide applications. And as Morrison seems to suggest, Afghan asylum seekers, many of whom are in refugee camps in Pakistan, indeed have a “choice” of destination because they can try to reach Europe, or they can head eastward, in which direction Australia is one of only a handful of countries that is a signatory to the UN Refugee Convention. And that’s what happened – not merely did Afghan refugees try to reach Australia, they tried to reach Europe. Applications from Afghans in Germany increased five-fold to over 3,000. Applications in Norway tripled to over 3,000. They went up tenfold in Hungary.
The more asylum seeker numbers you see, the clearer the evidence: the biggest reason for changes in numbers of people seeking asylum in Australia is because people who can get here are being forced from their homes – just like anywhere else.
The best take on this entire debate I’ve seen for a long time came this week from Chris Berg in the CIS’s Policy and I urge you to read it. Berg’s elegantly-reasoned application of the principles of classical liberalism to immigration stands in rather stark contrast to Bob Birrell’s nationalistic incoherence on the topic in the same publication. And you don’t have to agree with Berg’s throw-open-the-borders approach to recognise that Australia has a long way to go before it can even begin to compare itself to other countries in terms of its intake of asylum seekers.
Great article thanks Bernard.
People just don’t want to understand this issue. Many seem to be happy to live in delusion land about asylum seekers: they can tune out, and stay comfortable in their inaccurate world view. But thanks for chipping away at the issue yet again.
I agree with Jim, thanks Bernard.
I’ve downloaded the UNHCR report; sent this and an email to my Federal Member( a Lib) re their distortions/lies etc. I also sent the Crikey-Facts in figures of last yr – good work by 2 young people! We’ll see if I get an answer! Sick of the lies and nonsense – it’s destructive and racist! I wonder how many thousands of ‘unauthorised’ people here at present arrived by air?
I’ll now send them to Scott Morrison!
Same old chestnut. The Libs believe there are votes to be had by encouraging Hansonite attitudes. It sickens me, but I’ll never vote for them anyway. Good luck Liz with your local member.
DAVIDK – My local member was a Labor woman, of whom I admire greatly – she’s a hard worker for the people in her electorate, both before and after the ’07 election! – I now have a Liberal woman rep. she’s sent out via the letterbox a large tabloid sized info ‘pamphlet’ on nice paper with sensationalised nonsense re this topic, the Labor debt and the insulation program, along with others. There’s a separate A4 sized 6 page questionaire! All with our money! Oh yes, nowhere has she said that she’s a Liberal – the only reference to this is Liberal Senator Bill Heffernan’s contribution! I think it’s sneaky at best, trying to infer that she’s just taking over from the previous member!
Their lack of compassion or allegiance to human rights, International Law etc is bad enough, but it’s the damned lies that get to me! I can’t stand liars – particularly when it means misery to people who are already traumatized – by us too, as with people from Afghanistan, Iraq etc
Thankyou Bernard for coherent number crunching. The politicians will spin them to suit their prejudices and electoral ambitions.
What Scott Morrison et al have not yet picked up on is the way in which they have now become a significant PULL FACTOR IN THEIR OWN RIGHTsic.
I do not have stats to make this claim but evidence based on conversations with asylum seekers in Indonesia where people are registering at the Jakarta UNHCR office. This is the first place that many of the Hazaras from Afghanistan can fornmally apply for refugee protection. There they find out two things which the people smugglers/agents in Pakistan have not told them.
1. That there is a40 year queue to come to Australia based on present 2,500 registrations and a 9 year average settlement intake of 50 people per year.
2.That the politicians in Australia are consttantly calling for boats to be turned around and pushed back-they read the online news and share it with those who are not computer literate.
They say to us- we must come now becasue your government may close the doors and then we have nowhere to go. Being a refugee is dangerous and unpredictable- survival depends on reading the dangers and taking brave decisions.
Every time the Liberals scream about stopping the boats- they are effectively sending another boat to Australia. This is the reality.
There are real alternatives and solutions but politicians are not interested.