Yesterday’s reshuffle by Tony Abbott was perfect in every way, except one — he could have sent Barnaby Joyce to the backbench and failed to.
Better on the inside of the tent pissing out? Ask those inside the “broad tent” of the Liberal Party, as John Brogden used to call it, who’ve been micturated upon by Joyce since he became Finance spokesman and had to clean up the mess afterwards.
And, to really strain the metaphor, there’ll be more spraying of liquid now that Joyce has been given the water portfolio.
Joyce holds opposite views on water to Liberal MPs, um, downstream of him from St George. Diametrically opposite. Joyce and Bill Heffernan, who knows more than anyone in politics about water issues, have clashed repeatedly over issues like Cubbie Station, which Joyce has supported so aggressively he accused Heffernan and Senator Nick Xenophon of helping force it into administration last year.
And that’s before we get to South Australia, where young Liberal Senator Simon Birmingham has been running hard on the inadequacy of the Government’s response to the Murray-Darling crisis and the need for more water to reach his state.
Birmingham was rewarded for his advocacy — and for being about the smartest backbencher in the party — by Tony Abbott with a Parliamentary Secretaryship on the MDB, under Ian Macfarlane, who has kept a low profile generally since the leadership spill.
Birmingham now will work with Joyce, but given Joyce and Macfarlane are both Queenslanders, there not be that great a difference.
In any event, Tony Abbott early on took a strong line on water, proposing a referendum on a federal takeover of the MDB if insufficient progress hadn’t been made on management and interstate cooperation by 2013.
This immediately put him offside with irrigators and even with some advocates of greater MDB action, who warned the referendum would never pass. But that is the policy Joyce will have to sell as Water spokesman. Abbott has made the bed, and Joyce will have to find enough blankets and pillows to be comfortable lying in it.
You can see why the trouble from Joyce might not yet be over just because he now gets to talk about infrastructure and regional issues rather than the likelihood of the US or Australia defaulting.
On the other hand, Andrew Robb is back in the political frontline. Finally, the Abbott economic team has some substance, and not soon enough given the Budget is only weeks away. Robb has taken longer than expected to recover from his illness but given his economics background and campaigning experience he is ideally placed as both Finance spokesman and the Opposition’s policy coordinator. He lacks Joyce’s profile and he’s not the greatest media performer, but he has the advantage 1. of understanding economics and finance and 2. of sounding credible when he says something. His match-up with Lindsay Tanner will be engrossing.
And then there’s Malcolm.
Abbott made the right call. After all, he had seen what Turnbull did to Brendan Nelson from the position of shadow Treasurer. Even when Turnbull did nothing, his mere presence was a source of destabilisation and speculation. Given there’s only a matter of months until the election, it would have been an incredible risk, despite Turnbull’s attractions as a Finance spokesman, the strength of his Parliamentary performance and the unifying appearance of the appointment.
Nonetheless, Turnbull, having made himself available to serve under the man who took the leadership from him by one vote, has been rebuffed and embarrassed publicly. For those reading the tea leaves on whether he’ll stay in politics or not, the rebuff might grounds to consider Turnbull will chuck it in. But it can just as easily be read as evidence he was willing to stay in politics beyond the next election.
In which case, having tried to be a team player and been knocked back, Turnbull might feel he need display no loyalty to Abbott before or after the election. Turnbull would never have been held back by a small matter of loyalty, but now he might feel he can go after Abbott with a clear conscience.
Turnbull going after Abbott? Pass the popcorn.
squeal, where do I get tickets
Assuming Labor win the election, the post-election in fighting in the Liberals could get very bloody, especially if MT hangs around. Bear in mind what was pointed out when the CRPS issue came to a head; most of the marginal Liberal seats are held by wets, whereas the safe seats tend to be held by the drys (I think Possum had a nice graph showing this).
So, if the Coalition can hold there ground at the election, the moderates will keep the numbers they have, but Abbot and the drys in the control, will have shored up their position. Conversely, if they LNP goes backwards (which on current polls they would) then the moderates will have lost more numbers, but the conservatives in control will have been damaged by the electoral failings. Either way, it points to instability.
Clearly, the worse Abbott does the better Turnbull feels. The mess of the last week has probably restored Turnbull’s hope that he can return to the leadership after a bad election loss. That is why he is now showing clear signs of wanting to stick around.
I wonder when the interstaters are going to notice that Minchin resigned just as Isobel Redman conceded defeat and that Minchin is a major player in SA elections.
One defeat too many for old Nick I suspect and Oliver was the excuse.
Barnaby and others who keep whining and whining about more water for the SA leg of the Murray don’t get it.
They know that SA uses more of the water per capita than anyone else yet only 6.5% of it is within our legally constituted borders so under the constitutional arrangements regarding rivers and water that is all we get.
Bleating that we are “entitled” to water from flood plains thousands of miles away is as stupid as the US claiming they are entitled to melt waters from the Canadian tundra just because they are on the same frigging continent.
The flood waters are heading our way because of the natural flow of the lakes and rivers they are in, not because we are legally entitled to a drop of them.
I didn’t notice SA rushing off to help NSW and south Queensland with water during their 11 year drought, did anyone else.