If you’re anguished about Friday’s decision to temporarily suspend processing of asylum seeker claims from Sri Lankans and Afghans, understand that the Government will go even further, if necessary, to stop the flow of boats coming to Christmas Island.

Over the weekend, Brendan O’Connor’s office put out four separate releases about the interception of boats. Four more boats. Doing nothing was not a viable political strategy. The numbers — the facts — are irrelevant. Eventually the perception that there was a guaranteed back-door route into Australia being exploited by people smugglers was going to cost Labor dearly in outer suburban and regional electorates.

The fact that there has been a world-wide surge in Afghan refugees if anything made the case for action not weaker but politically stronger — it means the push factors behind the main source of boat arrivals on Christmas Island was not going to reduce, only increase.

Politically it was a no-brainer. The loss of support from progressive Labor voters would mostly channel back to Labor anyway via preferences. But the loss of support from more conservative voters could have cost Labor marginal seats. The actual interests of the Afghans and Sri Lankans likely to be affected by the decision don’t count at all, although progressive-minded Labor MPs can console themselves with the thought that we’re only talking about potentially a few thousand people being exposed to the psychological harm of indefinite detention.

But if this doesn’t stop the boats, then the Government will continue to take further measures to deter them. That’s the logic at work here. There’s no point incurring the pain of taking these sorts of measures if there’s no benefit.

Immoral? Evil? Well, maybe, but that’s politics. Labor wants to strengthen its grip on power this year by picking up additional seats and further pressuring an Opposition now looking thin on talent. An extended period in office is there for the taking if the Government is smart enough. It will not tolerate losing marginal seats because of a scare campaign by the Opposition on asylum seekers.

There is constant talk from asylum seeker advocates about “educating” and leading the electorate on the issue. That ignores that a lot of voters have no interest in being educated or led about asylum seekers coming here in boats.

The Government will also defend itself by noting that, regardless of what it does with Sri Lankan and Afghan asylum seekers, it will still take over 15,000 refugees this year under its humanitarian program, the same number as it would otherwise have taken, and more than we’ve taken in previous years. It might even accuse the Left of being every bit as obsessed with boat arrivals as rednecks and One Nation-types out in the community are.

This is political reality in an electoral system where you have to vote, and you have to allocate preferences so that, one way or another, it’s impossible to stop your vote filtering back to a major party in the House of Representatives.