The fight between Kevin Rudd and state leaders over federal control of public hospitals is entering its final round (for now), with both sides meeting at the COAG talks today as Rudd makes one last attempt to win their support.

Yesterday, Wayne Swan announced a final sweetener, with states to expect an extra $14 billion from the GST ($5 billion to NSW, $3.8 billion to VIC, $1.7 billion to WA and $170 million to NT).

Victoria’s John Brumby, NSW’s Kristina Keneally and WA’s Colin Barnett don’t look like budging. Phillip Coorey reports in today’s SMH:

One federal minister described the chance of an agreement today as ”f—ing hard” while another senior official said ”we are not positive”.

But in a last-minute twist, a new Nielsen poll has revealed that 62% of voters (63% in NSW, 58% in Victoria and 51% in WA) support Rudd’s reforms.

Will the poll prove a last-minute game changer? The nations’ pundits weigh-in on what they think they think the premiers should do… and what they reckon will actually happen:

The Australian

Editorial: Reforms worth persuing

Whatever the outcome of today’s COAG meeting to determine the future of hospital reform, improvements need to be achieved

David Burchell: PM’S phony piety and postures make for poor policy

In short, they are the perfect paradigm of political piety, devised with no purpose other than to displease as few of the major interests as possible, and involving an endless series of petty squabbles carefully pre-designed to have only one possible victor.

Adam Cresswell: Premiers must put policy before politics

Both ideas are driven by politics rather than sound policy and would entrench cost- and blame-shifting.

The Age

Tony Wright: It’s the people and PM v the premiers

[Rudd] has the people in his corner as he fights to prove he can actually deliver reform

Sydney Morning Herald

Peter Hartcher: Voters want it, but Grim Reaper happy to kill health reform

The Rudd reform is not perfect, but it is the only improvement on offer.

Paul Daley: It’s a Labor of (lost) love for Rudd

The highly experienced and respected Brumby has effectively told Rudd to stick it up his junta.

Phillip Coorey: The overlooked truth: states cannot afford soaring health costs

… he states will eventually be unable to fund health because the cost will consume their entire budgets.

The Daily Telegraph

Malcolm Farr: Canberra probably does know best

The main policy area on the agenda will be health. The real debate will be on that ageless question – who know best how to spend taxpayer money?